Habitat in the Endangered Species Act

Response to Jake Li's response to FWS revised definition of "habitat".

A couple of points about critical habitat.  First, it is often not stated by those who understand the ESA, and often misunderstood by those who do not, that critical habitat designations only have regulatory force on federal lands or for projects that involve a federal nexus (such that a federal agency would consult with FWS). While this may seem like nitpicking, it is crucial to understand the regulatory impact of the change in definition, as many federal agencies do not rely exclusively on critical habitat designations but instead consult with FWS based on the SME of their biologists whenever a project may impact a listed species.  

For private land, where many people are most worried about critical habitat, any changes in the areas designated would have little to no impact due to the fact that critical habitat has little to no impact on private land.

Second, it is interesting to consider how this change in the definition of habitat would affect monarchs. I think it would not affect monarch habitat due to the inclusion of "ephemeral and seasonal habitat" in the definition.  Even if monarchs only inhabit an area for a few months of the year, that area could still be designated critical habitat. 

You write that the 7a habitat protection is redundant if an area is occupied (and therefore protected by the jeopardy prohibition).  But monarchs (and many other species) only seasonally occupy parts of their critical habitat, so the 7a protection will continue to be relevant in those cases. 

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Thoughts about possible monarch listing:

Planting milkweed habitat

Some people are afraid of creating milkweed habitat because apparently they think they would never be able to destroy or modify this habitat.  I find this unlikely.  More likely is that they would be restricted from destroying or modifying the habitat while monarch caterpillars are present.  During winter months, they could destroy this habitat without adversely affecting individual monarchs.  Habitat protection in the ESA is often misunderstood on this point.

CCAA

I assume that monarchs will be listed.  Even so, there are many reasons for not joining CCAA, but I will focus on reasons that FWS enforcement will not be detrimental to business operations at companies with well-developed IVM programs.

A mature IVM program already has the goal to move away from mowing/mastication toward spot treatment of incompatibles with herbicide.  Although there will need to be mowing in some areas, the reason for mowing is that the areas are overgrown with woody vegetation. Therefore these areas would not support monarch milkweed habitat.

There may be incidental work in monarch milkweed habitat, but most of this work would not impact monarch breeding. For example tree cutting. I consider it unlikely the FWS would broadly restrict all activities in monarch milkweed habitats, due to the vast and unenforceable impact this would have on ordinary activities across the country.

I believe FWS will restrict some activities that would impact monarch milkweed habitat, during the monarch breeding season, especially ground-disturbing activities.  Biological opinions for species impacted by ground disturbing work implement mitigation measures that include timing restrictions and crew trainings.  FWS has provided incidental take statements based on these mitigation measures and reporting requirements.  I expect a similar scenario when monarch are listed. 

What is a Scientist?

"Science is a way of thinking, not an answer."

I hope to explain what science really is, and why its such a good thing (one of the most important in life).  But first, let's start with some examples:

Is Mr A a scientist? He worships spaghetti monster. Doesn't matter, lots of Christians are scientific and they worship similar gods.

Is Mr B a scientist?  He believes Earth goes around sun, is made of atoms, and humans evolved from prehistoric primates because he reads science books.  Doesn't matter what you believe.  Just because its in a book....

Ms. C read a website that earth is flat and evolution is a hoax.  Is one "right" and one "wrong"?  Maybe, but saying one is "science" and one isn't isn't the point.

What is a Scientist?

1) Open mind

2) Respect institutions that promote learning (process)

3) Experimentation

Sleep Apnea: Research and Self-Experimentation Results

 Abstract

I tested several sensors that claim to measure sleep apnea through optical measurement of blood oxygen content.

Background

Blood oxygen arterial saturation (Sa02) is approximated by Sp02.  At 5,000 feet elevation, Sp02 should be above 92%. Values under 90% are considered low.  Hypoxemia is dangerously low blood oxygen, defined as Sp02 <88% for more than 5 minutes.   (Hypoxia is low tissue oxygen levels)

An oxygen saturation level over 95 percent is considered normal. Anything below 92 percent oxygen may be a sign of breathing problems during sleep, such as sleep apnea or another disorder like severe snoring, COPD or asthma.  (Low levels can also be caused by anemia.)

Sleep apnea is characterized by a cessation of airflow lasting 10 seconds or more. Hypopnea (shallow breathing resulting in desaturation) is a decrease in airflow lasting 10 seconds or more with a 30% oxygen reduction and a 3 to 4% desaturation from the baseline. It is not uncommonpatients with sleep apnea to desaturate below 88%. 

Note: low Sp02 is an indicator of sleep apnea and is not necessarily the mechanism of the bad effects.  It may be possible to not have hypoxemia, but still have interrupted sleep.  

Sleep apnea and hypopnea can cause small awakenings that disrupt normal sleep cycles.  This can cause irregular heart beats, high blood pressure, blood sugar excursions, strokes, heart attacks, etc.  Most common effect is to create chronic, elevated stress response.  

Results

- Fitbit Charge 2 never showed any apnea episodes

- Biostrap showed several, including some that my wife didn't remember

- Wellue 02 ring showed several mild episodes per night.  Based on other testing, this sensor seemed potentially the most accurate, but location on finger wasn't comfortable.  Also ended up not being accurate because I sometimes sleep on my arm, cutting off circulation, which reduces Sp02.

Conclusion

I have been diagnosed with mild sleep apnea and my wife has no known apnea.  We both tried the Sp02 wearable sensors and they consistently showed the same level of apneas between us, either none (Fitbit) or mild (Wellue 02 Ring).  Based on the lack of a clear and actionable signal from these sensors, I no longer use them to track apnea events.  Instead I focus on trying to minimize possible breathing issues and promote general good sleep hygiene to try to improve restfulness. 

Covid and evidence for/against the Efficient Market Hypothesis

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-01/stocks-are-trying-to-forget-2020

Why is the stock market doing so well?

"If in 2019 you built a stock-price model that projected out 100 years of income, you will have to adjust one or two columns for 2020 and 2021, but after that everything can stay exactly the same."

The market movement this year seems to support this simplistic hypothesis and refute "short term-ism" critique of market.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/utySCY9nJt9xGYGGQ/the-emh-aten-t-dead

Argues that just because some people could make some money "beating" the market doesn't mean that they didn't get lucky and apply flawed post hoc reasoning.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tonKatiDTzTP8LrEk/zoom-technologies-inc-vs-the-efficient-markets-hypothesis

Argues that EMH needs to be restated, as market predicts the future value of the market, which could be totally "irrational" compared to the real world.

Blood oxygen concentration during Wim Hof breathing

 Here is some interesting data:  Blood oxygen concentration and heart rate during three cycles of Wim Hof hyperventilation and breath holding.

Total elapsed time 14 minutes.  3rd breath hold I went two minutes and bottomed out the blood O2 meter!

Method: 

Followed "Guided Wim Hof Method Breathing" video on Youtube.  

Used Wellue O2 Ring Blood Oxygen Monitor to measure blood oxygen. I tested several wrist spO2 monitors and this finger spO2 monitor is much faster and more accurate. 

HRV "Resonant Frequency" Test

HRV is often used to assess relaxation and recovery, but it is not clear if it correlates with R&R, or somehow causes it.  I think the claim is that it causes it, because HRV is supposed to directly reflect autonomic activity, with higher values indicative of more balanced sympathetic and parasympathetic activity.  (But some recovery scores are calibrated to not let the score get too high all at once.)

But HRV is very susceptible to intentional breathing frequency.  This can be good or bad, depending on whether this manipulation is considered functional or just gaming the system.  

HR naturally slows on the exhale, and speeds up on the inhale, reflecting the dominance of parasympathetic and sympathetic systems, respectively.  By adjusting the frequency of breathing to be resonant with some natural rhythm, HRV can be increased optimally.

I tried breathing rates from 4.5 to 6.5 breaths/minute (at 0.5/bpm steps) and found 5 breaths/minute (=6 seconds in, 6 seconds out) to be optimal for increasing my HRV.  This is my personal optimized meditation breathing frequency for reducing stress.  

HRV is greatest when I take belly and chest breath deep in, then really relax completely on breath out.

Loren Eiseley on Archaeology

"Archaeologists, during the course of their lives, see and hear may strange things, but the fact that they are scientific men keeps them for the most part silent.  They have good, if not superior, rationalizations for the things they do.  No layman would dare impugn their motives.  I, for example, have a certain number of skulls in my possession  As I write I can see four on the shelf above me.  At least two are hidden in my filing cabinet, and there is a beautiful fragment on my desk which is often fondled by visitors who are unaware of its human significance.

Now as it happens I am fortunate.  I practice a trade which enables me to keep these objects about in a perfectly logical and open manner.  I have not murdered to possess them, and if one or two were acquired in dark and musty places, my motives, as I have hinted, are beyond reproach.  As an archaeologist I can be both a good citizen and a frequenter of graveyards."

Human remains and the associated objects reminds me of another passage:

"It struck me that every ruined civilization is, in a sense, the mark of men trying to be human, trying to transcend themselves….none of them has quite made it, but they have each left artifacts. 

The archaeologist, it is said, is a student of the artifact.  That harsh, unlovely word, as sharply angled as a fist ax or a brick, denudes us of human sympathy.  In the eye of the public we loom, I suppose, as slightly befuddled graybeards scavenging in grave heaps.  We caw like crows over a bit of jade or a broken potsherd: we are eternally associated in the public mind with sharp-edged flints and broken statues.  The utter uselessness of the past is somehow magnificently incorporated into our activities. 

No one, I suppose, would believe that an archaeologist is a man who knows where last year’s lace valentines have gone, or that from the surface of rubbish heaps the thin and ghostly essence of things humans keeps rising through the centuries until the plaintive murmur of dead men and women may take precedence at times over the living voice.  A man who has once looked with the archaeological eye will never see quite normally.  He will be wounded by what other men call trifles.  It is possible to refine the sense of time until an old shoe in the bunch grass or a pile of nineteenth-century beer bottles in an abandoned mining town tolls in one’s head like a hall clock.  This is the price one pays for learning to read time from surfaces other than an illuminated dial.  It is the melancholy secret of the artifact, the humanly touched thing."

Quotations are from The Night Country, by Loren Eiseley

OTEC: Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion

OTEC has the potential to harness the power of the ocean, while pumping water from the depths to the surface has challenges and opportunities. It can fuel plankton growth and may help sequester carbon.

1982 National Energy Laboratory Report on OTEC

The xerox scan of the old scientific report is dark and stained, with primitive printing and poor font and layout.  But the columns and official investor report style belie the real science presented, without preamble or typical science summary.

The 1-mile long cold water pipe was deployed successfully in 1981, thanks to "Calm weather and much hard work."  The pipe extends from the surface to 2,000 feet deep. It can pump 500 GPM of deep cold 9-10 C) water. The warm water pipe pumps 2,000 GPM of surface seawater (24-28C).  When allowed to foul freely, it showed immediate increase in resistance to heat transfer, which biofouling countermeasures ameliorated.

The article presents a glowing portrait of research advancing at a fast pace, but is offset with somber photos of cloud-mottled skies and the inclusion of disturbing headings like "biofouling countermeasures". (Biofouling is when nimals get sucked in, and the system can become clogged by marine animals and plants.  This could also be used positively to grow algae) Funding is flowing in from multiple sources like the cold and warm water siphoned from the rich offshore resources...

The project is strategically located with nearby availability of cold, deep ocean water and a warm ocean surface layer that is not subject to strong seasonal cooling. The warm water intake only 15 feet offshore may explain the much more rapid initiation of biofouling than previous experiments.  A 300 foot extension has been designed and was to be installed in 1983.  They plan to add 2 new 500 GPM pumps to replace the original coldwater pump that only pumped from Feb to June at 340 GPM before failing.  They propose reconfiguring the OTEC-1 coldwater pipe to provide a capacity of 22,000 GPM, which would "satisfy their coldwater needs for the foreseeable future."







What ever became of all of this? The Makai Engineering website presents research from the 2010s that seems directly related to work done in the early 1980's, as if a 30 year gap is missing from the story, a lull in research perhaps while people's careers stagnated, limited by something mundane like the size or strength of piping availability or funding.  Maybe the ocean was still there but the money stopped coming from Washington.  Reagon took the solar panels off the white house, and the country went back to sleep for 30 years while a couple of billion people were born and the climate inched toward the 2 degree warming threshold. 

This dark paper seems to hold secrets of the past, arcane mad science experimentation. All that is not said, like the sea creatures sucked up.  So that today when ocean researchers wonder about the effects of cold water outfalls they have to design and bring their own small pipes and pumps.

2008 Reserach: Artifically Induced Upwelling
Used to understand how marine microbial ecosystems respond to large-scale perturbations. Diatoms will consume nitrogen, leaving some amount of phosphorus in the water, which will stimulate a second-stage bloom of nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. These blooms are often observed during summer months in open ocean waters when there are almost no nutrients at the surface and the winds generally are calm. What triggers the blooms and where are the nutrients coming from? We need to know.

Vast, seemingly barren regions comprise more than two-thirds of our oceans and nearly 40 percent of the entire Earth.  Need to replace about 10 percent of the surface waters with upwelled water to fuel a bloom.  Some scientists have looked at iron fertilization as a way to trigger biological growth in nutrient-poor areas of the ocean, but “everything responds to iron,” Letelier said. “You can’t control what grows.”

The researchers believe they can control plankton growth by determining which species respond to specific nutrients, and then adjusting the rate of nutrient feeding by the frequency and duration of water pumping.

Where the ocean is about 4,500 meters deep, the bottom layers of water have too much CO2 because of the decaying organisms that have sunk to the floor.  Their studies have shown, however, that water at a depth of 300 to 700 meters has the proper ratio of nitrogen and phosphorus to trigger a two-stage phytoplankton bloom.

Currently, they are able to pump about 50 cubic meters of water per hour (=4 GPM) using wave energy. "If we want to generate a bloom in an area of one-square kilometer, we would need to replace about 10 percent of the surface waters with upwelled water, which would take about a month at the rate we pumped.”

The scientists used undersea gliders in their Hawaii study to monitor the water from the pump so they have an idea how widely and quickly it disperses, and how much of an impact it can have on surface waters.





Resources
List of OTEC plants around the world: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_thermal_energy_conversion

1982 report about OTEC work at NEL Hawaii: https://nelha.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/NELH_AnnRpt_1982.pdf

Upwelling Press Release: https://today.oregonstate.edu/archives/2008/sep/scientists-test-%E2%80%9Cartificial-upwelling%E2%80%9D-learn-more-about-complex-ocean-ecosystem-be

More NEL reports: https://nelha.hawaii.gov/resources/library/

Makai Engineering: https://www.makai.com/ocean-thermal-energy-conversion/

Science Education: What It Takes To Be A Scientist

Motivation: We Are All Scientists Now
Anything can be science...and any detail could be important...(example: Future Perfect Moon Rock episode)

What it takes To Be A Scientist
Attention. You have to care.  Notice something.
Passion. You really get into something. Become an expert. This is more important than grades, social approval, etc.  Do you know what you're talking about?  Be Authentic.
Record.  Journal. Journaling.  Observations, names, dates. Data.
Analyze.  Logic!  Math!
Share.  This used to mean publishing in a journal.  Now it means put it on the cloud somehow: blog, social media, whatever.
Engage.  hang out with other people who share your interest.  This last step can be overwhelming and counterproductive if you skip the other steps.  Don't fit yourself to your group, find a group that fits you! This is part of growing up.

Examples of Things to Notice
shopping: prices
diet: food log
sports: hot hand
environment: observations of birds, insects, plants, plant diseases, mushrooms (need to know names!)
weather: compare forecast to observations

While doing science with humans is possible, the best thing is to get out in nature where there are unlimited questions and more freedom to ask them.  Also, nature is the origin of the traditional sciences, like geology, chemistry, astronomy, biology. 

To teach sciences like chemistry, that can seem abstract, going through discoveries, the exploratory process, alchemy, etc can be helpful. 

Teach science from the basics.  Like how chemistry discovered metallurgy, and how that was made possible by high heat.  Astronomy and biology were made possible by lenses.  Or teach botany by looking at botanical explorers from Textbook of Pharmacognosy by Wallis, T. E. (Thomas Edward).  Another way to make science relevant is by teaching practical applications, like chemistry in baking/washing clothes.

Resources

https://get21stnight.com/2019/12/27/why-introductory-chemistry-is-boring-a-long-term-historical-perspective/

science? example: https://wefunder.com/lppfusion?auto_login_token=cqcK4xYxqbRvcbLm

Questioning is part of science: Socratic Grilling  https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/06/socratic-grilling/

Chemistry table of smells: https://jameskennedymonash.wordpress.com/2013/12/30/table-of-organic-compounds-and-their-smells-250-smells/

Responses to Covid19

https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

https://granolashotgun.com/2020/03/10/your-weltschmerz-gives-me-schadenfreude/

https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2020/03/09/plot-economics/

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-links-speculation-open-thread/

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/emergent-ventures-prize-winners-for-coronavirus-work.html

Ponderosa Mortality After Fire

The best data comes from Hull Sieg, Carolyn, et al. "Best predictors for postfire mortality of ponderosa pine trees in the Intermountain West." Forest Science 52.6 (2006): 718-728.

This graph shows probability of death based on both “crown consumption” (actual burning of the crown) and “crown scorch” (browning of needles due to heat injury). It shows that probability of tree death increases above 50% when Crown Scorch increases past 75%, whereas tree death is above 50% when crown consumption is only 25%. A combination of the two is determined to be the best predictor of tree mortality.

Here are some diagrams of crown scorch and crown consumption. In general, if there are brown needles on the tree that is scorch, if they are black or missing it is consumption.



(from Tree and forest restoration following wildfire by Peter Kolb)

Teachers and What I Learned

This post has been a work in progress since I realized in 2007 that the university couldn't teach me what I needed to learn.  Since then, I've worked on farms and learned ecology from teachers in the field.  But it took me a long time to learn that the real lessons I needed were those that could heal my own body.

Foundation Pose by Eric Goodman - taught me how to load posterior chain, how to bend from the waist. His plank taught me how to activate abs and what neutral spine really means.

Alan Thrall taught me how to deadlift. I went from not being able to do it or hurting myself to lifting regularly.

Brian Mackenzie and Dr. Park taught me to nose breathe during aerobic exercise, and all the time, and that I'm naturally a mouth breather.  Maybe that's why I have sleep apnea.  I never realized it was normal to breath though the nose. 

Diet
Diet gurus, yoga teachers: never taught me anything and may (raw diet) have sent me down the wrong path.  Omnivore's dilemma (eat whole foods, mostly plants) is probably best.  Paul Pitchford has a lot of really deep diet advice, unfortunately it doesn't work for me.  Neither do blood type diets, etc. 


Other Teachers
Headspace app taught me to meditate. But Andrew Weil's 4-7-8 breath works just as well now that I have a few key concepts.

Happy body book by Jerzy Gregorek taught me that relaxing after exercise is as important as muscle tension, and the importance for spine health of hanging (traction) after compression on the spine.

Paval Tsatsouline also teaches that strength is learning to completely tense and then relax muscles.

Getting an inversion table teaches how to stretch spine and soas muscles. 

Slack line teaches balance.  "Gorilla feet" Vibram 5-finger shoes help with balance and teach what is correct shape of the foot.  Altra shoes are also good for this.

I learned a lot in the last 5 years!

Tropical Reforestation

Tree Meditation
Trees are somehow a focus for my life.  Ayurveda teaches that I should be like a tree: no-harm, no killing, no lying, no stealing, no sexual misconduct, no intoxicants.  Simple clean food offered freely, with fresh air and rain.  And a place to stand and grow - upward and downward.

Earth molds water.  Water nourishes trees.  Trees touch the earth and feel the air.  Trees stand apart from all philosophy, and yet are subject to our philosophy, our economy.  Strange that in my job I plan the cutting of hundreds of trees from computer documents and databases. Somehow I am both, I have my roots in the reality of trees and mud, but my arms in the ethereal computer worlds of planning and economy, laws.

Can I do something to balance the world, something electronic for the trees?

Forest Reforestation
There are problems with many reforestation efforts. Monocultures that don't help local people, protests around the world against REDD+.  In Japan, people are waking up to the problem.  (Link)  The problem of monoculture or few species planted in US cities has led to invasive insect pests wiping out large areas, for example in Worcester, MA.  The International Society of Arboriculture says the goal should be to follow the 20% rule (max 20% of any genus/species).

Example solutions: Health in Harmony listen to people. They give people healthcare, pay them to plant and monitor forest.  Other groups like Eden also pay people to plant.  Trees for the Future tries to create sustainable agroforestry.  Search engine ecosia donates money to these and other organizations.

But I have concerns about cost effectiveness and the ability to scale.  TFTF has only helped a few thousand farmers in the 30 years they've been around.  But CharityNavigator rates these groups highly; they have good governance, but they may not be as effective.

Policy action to improve REDD+ payments could make a huge difference, but the scale is too big for me to think about, and maybe for anyone. There will always be problems with a system that big.  The Effective Altruism community's assessment of Coalition of Rainforest Nations (CoRN) tries in vain to wrap their analysis around policy.  Policy is just too amorphous to apply straightforward risk and return.

WRI's Global Forest Tracker (10 year report on deforestation) will be important to measure and monitor leakage.  Mondabay also has good rainforest statistics page.

WRI supports restoration with venture capital as a way to scale, it is unclear how this makes money. they speak in corporate-ease, another example of how the real work is in board rooms or on the ground? Its hard to tell.

Ecosia has nice on-the-ground videos showing the work they support.

Conclusion
I need to research more, learn more.  Restoration is a passion project for me, but to be professional it may need to be something like WRI or EDF. But i'm not a corporate person, being in the field is what inspires me.  Maybe, like a tree, I can grow from the earth and reach into board rooms?

Exercise Types and Crossfit

Types of Exercise
Long and slow - metabolic conditioning. Generally should be below 60% HRM. Similar to recovery workouts, but those are usually short and slow, less than 30 minutes, on the day after a hard weight or interval training.  Metabolic conditioning is at least 30 minutes, but can be quite long, depending on conditioning.  Builds aerobic (heart) and metabolic (mitochondrial density).  Do not combine with weights in same workout.  Good to use different muscles from those trained in weights. Stronger By Science article.

Weights, skill work (short and intense with long rests).  Need to rest enough between sets to bring heart rate down and to recover muscle energy. Let HR return to near-resting before each set. Weights are usually periodized so not trying to hit PRs every time. Important to stop far before exhaustion.  Missing weights for several weeks does not result in a decrease in strength (PainScience article). 

Interval training (HIIT, short intense with short rests) training at ~80% HRM. Includes sprinting. Can work close to exhaustion. May be added to weight lifting at end of workout as a "drop set". 

A Note on Crossfit
Distinguishing the public-facing sport of Crossfit from the reality in a Box can be difficult.  Crossfit from the outside, despite introducing functional fitness, looks like a very regressive and simplistic training style characterized by unimodal "short and hard" training, whereas anyone who studies exercise science knows that athletes train at different intensities, not just 100% all the time. And from the inside its clear that's what Crossfit does, with Box coaches setting up interval circuits in their gyms, etc. But all of the official workouts from the Crossfit.com homepage to the Open, to the Sanctionals to the Games look like unimodal exercise.

REDD+

[A note on REDD+]

During the negotiations for the Kyoto Protocol the inclusion of tropical forest management was debated but eventually dropped due to anticipated methodological difficulties in establishing – in particular – additionality and leakage (detrimental effects outside of the project area attributable to project activities). Eventually, the national forest monitoring system was introduced, with elements of measurement, reporting and verification (MRV).

Reference levels are a key component for any national REDD+ program and critical in at least two aspects. First, they serve as a baseline for measuring the success of REDD+ programs in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from forests. Second, they are available for examination by the international community to assess the reported emission reductions or enhanced removals. In that sense it establishes the confidence of the international community in the national REDD+ program. The results measured against these baselines may be eligible for results-based payments.]

Flu

We have been sick with Influenza A, apparently of the lineage from the H1N1 pandemic of 2009. The flu vaccine is not effective against it.  The vaccine did work against Influenza B that was circulating in December, only unvaccinated people got sick with that one, but B is milder than A. 

The most common comment from people who had A this year is that they understand how people die of it.  Ali says she knows now how she will die, not cancer or stroke (her old fears) but just a simple flu.  We both got antivirals and maybe they shortened the duration, but they provide no relief for days. 

The first day you just feel weird, tired, have a slight fever and think you "might" have the flu.  The next day is worse and you have a fever all day and can't eat.  Extreme lethargy sets in.  That night is the worst, fever above 103 and you hallucinate and want to die.  Acetaminophen does nothing for it, but aspirin does help a bit.  On the 3rd day you feel better and can eat a bit, but are easily exhausted.  That night you sweat again all night and now the phlegm gets bad and you wake coughing.  Cough medicine does nothing, but a combination of decongestant and expectant and something to knock you out (antihistamine) lets you rest.  The 4th day is much like the 3rd, and you live in fear of nightime.
You might try to go to work, and you'll get dressed and eat breakfast in a daze, then send in for more PTO and go straight back to bed.  On the 5th day you'll make it in to work and check emails, tell everyone you're not contagious because you haven't had a fever in 24 hours and you washed all your clothes, then get a headache and feel brain dead and go home early.

Its mostly just staring at a wall, watching star trek and trying not to think about anything.  The body has taken over and is going through its reboot sequence and the mind is totally superfluous. The body doesn't want the mind to do anything, but the mind feels it has something its supposed to do, it just can't remember what.  Eventually it realizes the body knows best and the mind finally relaxes, gives up on whatever complicated socially-determined pressures it had programmed itself to believe in, and goes along for the ride.

Missing Mammals?

 Animal population distributions can be assessed using iNaturalist.  The website is used by citizen scientists to report animal and plant observations.  Rare animals may not be mapped well, but my hypothesis is that large mammals are well mapped because humans tend to make note of them.  This may be less true for nocturnal animals, and it also depends on the presence of humans.

Raccoon observation from iNaturalist.

The map above of raccoons and the map below of coyote observations shows that both species are well-distributed across the U.S.  Clusters of observations are probably more likely due to sampling bias around large cities rather than actual differences in population density. 

Therefore, these maps can show overall distribution but may not be as useful for determining densities.

Coyote observations from iNaturalist.

The next map shows that moles do not occur in the central arid and mountainous part of the U.S.  It appears that these animals need mesic conditions and rich soil.

Mole (family) observations from iNaturalist.

In contrast, Pocket Gophers, a similar group of burrowing animals, are found throughout the arid West as well as along the Pacific coast and in Florida.

Pocket Gophers

But another burrowing mammal, the Prairie Dog, is restricted to the arid West:

Prairie Dogs

While the Prairie Dog distribution makes sense at the continental scale, zooming in reveals interesting patterns.  In northern AZ, Prairie Dogs are mainly restricted to the I-40 corridor, despite extensive grassland habitat in, for example, the Chino and Prescott valley area. The data for this zoomed-in view is much sparser than the national map and it is likely that there are many areas with missing observations. 

However, I am confident that any highly-visible Prairie Dog colonies in the Prescott area would have been photographed at some point.  Given the presence of suitable habitat surrounding occupied habitat in AZ, it may be that Prairie Dogs populations have been extirpated and fragmented across northern AZ.

Prairie Dog observations in northern AZ.

Each of the above species distributions can be related to environmental variables, but other mammal distributions are more complex.  Porcupines feed on the growing tips of conifer and deciduous trees, but apparently do not occur in much of the Midwest and southeastern parts of the U.S.  I'm not sure why this would be, as there is plenty of what looks like suitable habitat in these regions, and the presence of the species in the southwest and the northeast spans a large environmental gradient.

Porcupine distribution

Porcupine observations are quite scattered across much of the West, despite the fact that they are fairly visible in trees; birders looking for birds would be very likely to see them. There are large areas of suitable habitat in AZ, for example along the Verde river in Cottonwood.  I'm not sure why this species hasn't been observed anywhere on the Verde river.  Perhaps it has been extirpated from these areas.  Or, the two observations around Prescott may have been of dispersing animals and the population is only reproducing in the higher elevations around Flagstaff.

Porcupines in northern AZ.

Badgers also show a predominantly Western and great-plains distribution.  They need large areas of open space.

Badger distribution

However, in Northern AZ few animals have been observed.  This nocturnal burrowing animal may simply escape frequent detection, or it may be very infrequent on the landscape.  Supporting the idea that humans rarely encounter this animal, many of these observations are road kill.  Interestingly, badgers are found in AZ both in high-elevation mountain habitats and in low-elevation Sonoran desert habitat!

Badgers observations in AZ.

 Another animal with a strange distribution is the Opossum.  It seems to avoid most of the interior arid West, except for southern AZ.  The observations in Tucson would seem to be environmental outliers compared to the populations along the West coast and in the Eastern U.S.

Opossum distribution.  

Much can be learned by studying species distributions and noting where animals have been observed as well as where they have not.  Trying to explain the observed distributions raises many questions. The mysteries surrounding animal distributions are fertile ground for theorizing about animal behavior, history, and habitat needs.

Safety Is A Value

"We talk about what is important to us."
- Jacob Tetlow, APS

Regular safety meetings and striving for constant improvement are a sign that safety actually is important.  APS has regular safety meetings where we try to proactively create safer working conditions.  By sharing and talking about safety incidents we can learn from them before they happen to us.  "The wise man learns from others' mistakes."

APS is implementing a new safety program called Safety Foward, based on the ideas of Todd Conklin, a retired senior safety adviser from Los Alamos National Lab.  You can look up his talks on Youtube or look into his book “Pre Accident Investigations”.  He talks about the difference between resilient and fragile systems. A fragile system is liable to a single point of failure, for example, an operator-dependent system where the only safeguard against risk is the behavior of the employee.  Dr. Conklin says that such a system is basically "alligator wrestling" where you are telling the employee, "don't get bit!".

Some key ideas around moving Safety Forward
Create a resilient safety system: It's not IF an event occurs, but WHEN.
People are the solution: Employees doing the work are best suited to provide solutions to safety risks/hazards.
Focus on being a learning organization: Establish learning teams to collaborate and communicate learnings from an event or known risk.
Focus on leading indicators:  Focus on safety observations and serious injury or fatality (SIF) potential.

More notes

• Failure is the mother of improvement – viewing an accident as an opportunity to improve processes, procedures, and overall culture
• All accidents are not preventable and don’t ask “if” questions – ask “when” questions – sets up individuals to recover better for when an incident happens
• Design a system that knows it will fail
• Detection and correction are the two most powerful tools in safety – getting at the idea of recoverability
• Three main controls to number of accidents include Compliance (procedures, rules, regulations), Design (engineering controls for safety) and human performance (place where work meets the worker)
• The new view of safety looks at workers as the solution rather than the problem
• Safety leaders should be asking what workers need in order to be safe instead of leading safety from a top-down approach

Tactical and Executive Leadership

Notes from a presentation at APS by Jason Gardner, Echelon Front, fomer Navy Sea Air and Land SEAL.

Sometimes good to let people fail so they can improve.

There is often the assumption that if you told someone what to do then it will work, but may not hold true in stressful situations.

Develop culture where everyone is included and understands that their contribution is important.

1. Cover and Move
If teammate fails, we all fail.

2. Keep it Simple
Everyone needs to understand the goal.

3. Prioritize and Execute
Detach from details. Don't be a robot, but don't forget to see yourself from the outside.

4.  Decentralized Command
Everyone leads.  Leadership is not just a title but an attitude. 

Victory Mindset
-Default mode: aggressive.  See and do. Often the most important things to do are in the places we least want to look.
-Innovate and Adapt - aggressively
-Humility: check your ego
-Influence up and down chain of command: develop relationships
-Lead and follow
-Discipline equals freedom
-Extreme ownership: no blame, no excuses.

Australian Wildfires

Extremely large pyrocumulus clouds tower over bushfires in New South Wales and spread over the Pacific Ocean. Sentinel-2A image, December 31, 2019, processed by @andrewmiskelly.  Source.

A pyrocumulus cloud is produced by the intense heating of the air over a fire. This induces convection, which causes the air mass to rise to a point of stability, where condensation occurs. If the fire is large enough, the cloud may continue to grow, becoming a cumulonimbus flammagenitus which may produce lightning and start another fire.  Source.

"Fuels management cannot prevent fires but can change their behavior" but fuels management is limited by budgets and time to burn, especially in droughts." Source.

The BBC has a good overview:

"We’re seeing recurrent fires in tall, wet eucalypt forests, which normally only burn very rarely. A swamp dried out near Port Macquarie, and organic sediments in the ground caught on fire. When you drop the water table, the soil is so rich in organic matter it will burn. We’ve seen swamps burning all around."

"Even Australia’s fire-adapted forest ecosystems are struggling because they are facing increasingly frequent events. In Tasmania, over the past few years we have seen environments burning that historically see fires very rarely, perhaps every 1000 years. The increasing tempo, spatial scale, and frequency of fires could see ecosystems extinguished." Source.


More Info.
Australian Fire Center
Case Study / Educational Info

What We Need More Of, Is Science

No Heroes or Villains
Dodds has a nickname for us humans: Homo narrativus. Dodds, a professor at the University of Vermont, uses mathematics to study social networks. He has argued that people see the stories of heroes and villains, where there are really just networks and graphs. It’s our desire for narrative, he says, that makes us believe that something like fame is the result of merit or destiny and not a network model quirk. (From http://nautil.us/issue/47/Consciousness/to-fix-the-climate-tell-better-stories)

Scientific narratives, if they’re done right, are some of the most powerful of all. They teach us more than facts, mechanisms, and procedures. They convey a worldview of skeptical empiricism and indefinite revision, show us how to negotiate the boundary between our rational and emotional selves, teach us to suspend judgment and consider all the possibilities, and remind us that a belief in objective truth is a deep kind of optimism with massive dividends.

Kirk Johnson, director of the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, puts it this way: “If you look at how the media treats scientific discoveries, they’ll go to the wonder. ... [They’ll say] ‘here’s this thing that’s been discovered,’ not the process of how we figured it out. And I think that understanding of how we know what we know is so critical ... If you don’t help people understand what those processes are, [if] you just say ‘here’s the answer,’ now they can go onto the web and dial up an alternate answer. I think we’re seeing an erosion of credibility of science to the public because of this huge flood of technology and information.”

This erosion is essential to understanding the modern climate debate. In the words of the philosopher Richard Rorty, “We understand knowledge when we understand the social justification of belief, and thus have no need to view it as accuracy of representation.”4 In the absence of social justification, the public ends up being called on to be the judge of accuracy of representation—in other words, of scientific content

Climate Change Belief Tree

An article in Nautilus magazine analogizes beliefs about climate change to branches on a tree.  I like that the tree diagram emphasizes the unity of thinking about climate change, even if we may be on different branches.  Also, I think it is OK for one person's beliefs to span different branches: belief about the future does not need to be certain but can be probabilistic and can change from one day to the next. 

Diagram and original article by Summer Praetorius.

The article concludes: "What if instead of feeling threatened by differences in opinion, we were to reconceptualize them in much the same way a tree will distribute a canopy to collect as much sunlight as possible—as a multi-pronged approach to getting the job done? In the same sense that both fast and slow processes contribute to Earth change, both steady progress and immediate local action will contribute to climate solutions. Let’s take stock of our pace and work together, thankful there is someone else to fill the space we can’t. After all, we are not lone trees, but a living, connected forest, and balance is essential for stability."

Top 2019 conservation news

Multiple stories of widespread wild animal population declines:

From 10 billion down to 7 billion birds.
The population of birds in North American has fallen by a third in 50 years. Science.

Statistic of the decade: amount of rainforest lost in Amazon.

"Insect apocalypse" in the New York Times Magazine garnered widespread attention. 
In the United States, scientists recently found the population of monarch butterflies fell by 90 percent in the last 20 years, a loss of 900 million individuals; the rusty-patched bumblebee, which once lived in 28 states, dropped by 87 percent over the same period.

the overall abundance of flying insects in German nature reserves had decreased by 75 percent over just 27 years. If you looked at midsummer population peaks, the drop was 82 percent.

It is estimated that, since 1970, Earth’s various populations of wild land animals have lost, on average, 60 percent of their members.

What we’re losing is not just the diversity part of biodiversity, but the bio part: life in sheer quantity....Finding reassurance in the survival of a few symbolic standard-bearers ignores the value of abundance, of a natural world that thrives on richness and complexity and interaction.

Scientists have begun to speak of functional extinction (as opposed to the more familiar kind, numerical extinction). Functionally extinct animals and plants are still present but no longer prevalent enough to affect how an ecosystem works. Some phrase this as the extinction not of a species but of all its former interactions with its environment — an extinction of seed dispersal and predation and pollination and all the other ecological functions an animal once had...

Other News  (Link)
Last female Yangzte Giant Softshell Turtle died
Last Sumatran Rhino in Malaysia died
Jaguar and Koala populations hit by wildfires in Brazil and Australia