Fire Frequency in Arizona Ecosystems

 

Introduction

How likely a given area is to encounter wildfire is important for planning and wildfire mitigation. Historic or expected fire return statistics are often cited for ecosystems in Arizona, but I was curious how often wildfire actually burns across different Arizona ecosystems.

Figure 1 Example wildfire polygons around Clints Well, AZ showing overlapping fires from newer (blue, labelled), to older (shades of brown, unlabelled).  Data sources include WFIGS and GeoMAC.

Wildfire Data

I used the WFIGS Interagency Fire Perimeter GIS data, which has good data on wildfires from 2000-2023.  I limited this analysis to USFS land in Arizona.

Out of a total of 11.168 million acres of USFS land in AZ, wildfire has burned 4.8 million cumulative acres in the last 24 years.  This counts areas that burned more than once as additional acres.  It includes natural and human-ignitions, as well as wildfire managed for resource benefit.  

Figure 2 Example WFIGS Interagency Fire Perimeters in AZ

Figure 3 Wildfire acreage over time in AZ.  2011 was the Wallow fire.

Vegetation Types

To evaluate wildfire probabilities in Arizona ecosystems, I looked at the 15 most common ecosystem types, as defined by the USFS Ecosystem Response Unit (ERU) vegetation type GIS layer.  Together, these 15 ecosystems account for 9.1 million out of the 11.1 million acres of USFS land in Arizona.

Figure 6 Example ERU polygons showing aspen (pink) and mixed conifer around the San Franscisco Peaks, AZ.

To calculate the percent of each ERU burned per year, I divided total acres burned by total acres of ERU and divided that by 24 years.   Spruce-Fire forest and Mixed Conifer is most likely to burn, whereas Mixed Conifer with Aspen is least likely.  Ponderosa pine ecosystems rank in the middle, at around 3% chance. 

This analysis counts acres more than once if they burned more than once in the 24 year time period.  For example, Spruce Fir Forest ERU has more acres of wildfire than there are total acres of ERU.  This does not mean that every acre burned, but some acres burned more than once.   

ERU	ERU Acres	Wildfire Acres	% burned in 24 years	% burned per year
Ponderosa Pine Forest	1,966,603	1,431,424	72.79%	3.03%
PJ Woodland	1,175,545	208,685	17.75%	0.74%
PJ Evergreen Shrub	1,136,221	311,254	27.39%	1.14%
Mojave-Sonoran Desert Scrub	779,939	386,363	49.54%	2.06%
Semi-Desert Grassland	730,015	300,189	41.12%	1.71%
Interior Chaparral	713,754	533,678	74.77%	3.12%
Juniper Grass	539,830	299,074	55.40%	2.31%
Colorado Plateau / Great Basin Grassland	367,114	41,812	11.39%	0.47%
Ponderosa Pine – Evergreen Oak	362,838	238,365	65.69%	2.74%
Madrean Pinyon-Oak Woodland	354,836	92,160	25.97%	1.08%
Mixed Conifer - Frequent Fire	349,006	304,104	87.13%	3.63%
Mixed Conifer w/ Aspen	242,169	9,782	4.04%	0.17%
Montane / Subalpine Grassland	157,163	92,461	58.83%	2.45%
Spruce-Fir Forest	112,827	124,593	110.43%	4.60%
PJ Grass	96,016	8,995	9.37%	0.39%
Madrean Encinal Woodland	93,939	23,092	24.58%	1.02%

Figure 7 ERU acres, wildfire acres, percent burned in 24 years, and percent burned per year.  Table ranked from most to least common ERU.

Wildfire Return Interval

Fire return interval is the average length of time until fire returns at a given point in the landscape.  The chance that any given acre burns depends on a large number of complex factors, including when it last burned, the topography, fuel reduction treatments, proximity to WUI and/or human use.  Still, percent burned per year in the table above (Wildfire/Year, W) can be used to calculate expected return intervals of fire, all else being equal.

Calculations – Fire per Year

To calculate expected return intervals, first calculate the probability (P) that fire will not occur in a given span of time (X).

P = (1-W)^X

For example, for Ponderosa Pine Forest over 10 years:

P = (1-0.0303)^10

P = (0.9697)^10

P = 73.5% chance that fire will not occur, or 26.5% chance that fire will occur in 10 years.

20 years:

(0.9697)^20=54% chance that fire will not occur, or 46% chance that fire will occur.

 

Figure 8 Cumulative probability of wildfire in AZ Ponderosa Pine ERU

Calculations – Fire Return Interval

If we determine a Probability, but need to know the span of time until fire occurs, we can solve for X:

P = (1-W)^X

P = log x / log (1-W)

For example, if we determine "expected return interval" to be the length of time necessary for 50% chance of fire:

 0.5  = (0.9697)^X

X = log (0.5) / log (0.9697)

X = 22 years until there is a 50% chance of fire in Ponderosa Pine Forest.

However, if we interpret "expected return interval" to be the length of time necessary for 90% chance of fire:

0.1  = (0.9697)^x

X = log (0.1) / log (0.9697)

X = 75 years until there is a 90% chance of fire in Ponderosa Pine Forest.

Over time, the probability approaches, but never actually reaches, 100% that a wildfire will occur:

Figure 9 Cumulative Probability of Fire in Ponderosa Pine ERU

Conclusion

The length of time until fire returns at a given point in the landscape depends on how certain we want to be of the chance of fire.  If we want to be very certain (90% probability), then we would expect to wait 75 years on average.  If we are OK taking the flip of a coin (50% probability), than we would expect fire to return at any given point in 22 years.  If we are risk adverse, and can only tolerate a 10% chance of fire visiting our chosen point, we should expect fire every 3.5 years, on average.

Phenology, Accumulated Growing Degree Days, and Soil Moisture

US Crop Calendar

Source: https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/Default.aspx?id=US

Arizona had a good year for NDVI

Source: https://glam1.gsfc.nasa.gov/

NASA SMAP data.  Data is global.

This mapped layer is delayed by 2 weeks.  I haven't found a layer that shows real-time moisture.

NPN Visualization tool can view Historical, Current, and Anomaly Accumulated Growing Degree Days. Data is only for USA.

Source: https://data.usanpn.org/vis-tool/#/explore-phenological-findings

Ecosystem Art

I've previously blogged about cool ecosystem artwork, and wanted to recognize more amazing artists in this post.

The Nature of America stamp series featured the ecosystem artwork of John D. Dawson.

Dawson is one of the best-known artists featured in National Park ecosystem artwork, such as these brochures from Olympic National Park.

Larry Eifert may have done more ecosystem artwork for the NPS than any other artist.

The USFS has a series of posters featuring the ecosystem artwork of Steve Buchanan.

A New Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index to Map Global Drought

Standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration (Vicente-Serrano et al 2010).  It is distinguished from other drought indices because it accounts for temperature through modelled evapotranspiration. This website maps global drought:

Drought in the US 2010-2011.

SPEI has recently been used to predict pine mortality in SW forests.  When the SPEI is below -1.68 for at least 11 months, pinyon and ponderosa pines cannot grow and mortality soon follows. (Kolb, T.E., 2015. A new drought tipping point for conifer mortality.Environmental Research Letters, 10(3), p.031002.)

Long-term drought graph for NM.

The Theory and the Reality of Shelterbelt Afforestation Projects

The Theory of Shelterbelts

The Reality

Introduction:  dust bowl, us efforts

Following the dust bowl years in the U.S. the government planted 220 million trees in a strip 100 miles wide, stretching 18,600 miles from Canada to the Brazos river.  1935-1942  Today, the growth and vigor of many trees has declined due to close spacing, age, and invasion of undesirable short-lived trees.  Wikipedia.

There are currently two major afforestation programs, one in China, and one in the Sahel.

Great Green Wall in China. 

This project aims to afforest 90 million hectares and eventually contain 100 billion trees in a 4500km belt.

A recent paper by Tan (2014) found decreased dust transport due to the plantings so far.  But independent Chinese media reported in 2013 that dust storms were increasing:  For centuries in northern China, annual sandstorms, called the Yellow Dragon, have been ripping through the city.  Wind erosion is obvious and most pronounced in spring, when sandstorms are common and the vegetation is still absent or dormant after severe winter temperatures. Sandstorms have increased in the last few years, calling into question whether the Great Green Wall is working.

Liu Tuo, head of the desertification control office in the state forestry administration, is of the opinion that there are huge gaps in the country's efforts to reclaim the land that has become desert. At present there are around 1.73 million sq kilometers that have become desert in China, of which 530,000 km2 are treatable. But at the present rate of treating 1,717 km2 per year, it would take 300 years to reclaim the land that has become desert.  

Background
In early times, Korqin was not a semi-desert, but savannah-type woodland, in transition between dense forest and the steppe zone. The rolling sand-sheet was deposited during the last glacial period (12000 years BP). During 10,000 years of vegetation growth, thick dark topsoil developed. Since historical times, the region has gone through several cycles of man-induced desertification and subsequent recovery, when human pressure lessened. Fertile dark topsoil vanished and extensive dune fields gradually build up.  Overgrazing (by cattle, goats, sheep, camels, horses), clearing of land for agriculture and over-cutting of trees and shrubs in this vulnerable ecosystem have resulted in an increasingly severe land degradation and desertification.

Other Approaches?

There are many who do not believe the Green Wall is an appropriate solution to China’s desertification problems. Gao Yuchuan, the Forest Bureau head of Jingbian County, Shanxi, stated that “planting for 10 years is not as good as enclosure for one year,” referring to the alternative non-invasive restoration technique that fences off (encloses) a degraded area for two years to allow the land to restore itself.  Soil fertility, already critically low, has shown a sharp decline as all organic residues from crops are removed for fuel and fodder during wintertime. Willow and poplar stands are pollarded in autumn, before leaf fall, for the same purpose. The continuous removal of potential nutrients to the soil is not balanced by the relatively small amounts of manure and inorganic fertiliser applied to crops.

Problems

 Jiang Gaoming, an ecologist from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and proponent of enclosure, says that “planting trees in arid and semi-arid land violates [ecological] principles”.The worry is that the fragile land cannot support such massive, forced growth. Tree growth in Korqin is largely dependent on the presence of a high groundwater table, fed by percolation and inflow from the western and southern mountainous areas. The long-term trend of a decreasing depth of the groundwater table is due to an increasing demand for water to irrigate crops and for human and industrial needs. If the trees succeed in taking root, they could soak up large amounts of groundwater, which would be extremely problematic for arid regions like northern China.  For example, in Minqin, an area in north-western China, studies showed that groundwater levels have dropped by 12–19 metres since the advent of the project.

Progress So Far

As of 2009 China’s planted forest covered more than 500,000 square kilometers (increasing tree cover from 12% to 18%) – the largest artificial forest in the world.However, of the 53,000 hectares planted that year, a quarter died. In 2008 winter storms destroyed 10% of the new forest stock, causing the World Bank to advise China to focus more on quality rather than quantity in its stock species.  FAO report

But the program’s widespread tree planting campaigns typically allot only one or two species of tree to an area. Professor Jiang wrote in a 2009 Epoch Times article, “In Ningxia, for example, 70 percent of the trees planted were poplar and willow. In 2000, one billion poplar trees were lost to a disease (Anoplophora), wiping out 20 years of planting efforts.”  FAO report followup

More criticisms:  Wikipedia.

Great Green Wall in Africa - the Sahel

The Great Green Wall initiative is much more nuanced than simply planting a belt of trees across the continent: “Behind the name or the brand ‘Great Green Wall,’ different people see different things. Some people saw just a stripe of trees from east to west, but that has never been our vision,” he says. “In Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso . . . natural regeneration managed by farmers has yielded great results. We want to replicate and scale up these achievements across the region. It’s very possible to restore trees to a landscape and to restore agroforestry practices without planting any trees. This is also a sustainable way of regenerating agroforestry and parkland.”

But it should be noted that the Great Green Wall is not designed to prevent the Sahara Desert from expanding. “We are not fighting the desert,” he says. “In the majority of the areas we are working in these 11 countries, the desert is not advancing. The [Sahara] Desert is a very stable ecosystem. Of course, there are some areas on the margins—for instance in Senegal, Mauritania, and Nigeria—where there are some sand movements. But from a geographic perspective, over time the desert has been relatively stable in this area.” (Source)

But some authors advocate  "a shift from planting trees in the GGW to utilizing shrubs (e.g., Leptospermum scoparium, Boscia senegalensis, Grewia flava, Euclea undulata or Diospyros lycioides), which would have multiple benefits, including having a faster growth rate and proving the basis for silvo-pastoral livelihoods based on bee-keeping and honey production.” (Connors and Ford, 2014 Sustainability)

Another Ecosystem Analogy

"....The idea [is] that fewer excess carbs in the gut leads to more competition which favors indigenous gut microbes over bad or pathogenic bacteria. A good example in this paper likens friendly gut microbes to your lawn. “It is thought that our commensal, or friendly, bacteria serve as a kind of lawn that, in commandeering the rich fertilizer (carbs) that courses through our gut, out-competes the less-well-behaved pathogenic “weeds.” The more healthy grass you have, the fewer weeds will be able to become established.” But if you were to spray your lawn with roundup (like antibiotics) and continue to add fertilizer, soon you will have a weed-filled yard. According to the authors: “Resident microbes hold pathogens at bay by competing for nutrients.”

Source.