The Future of Forests...is People

 David Wear, USFS, predicts large declines in forest area in the US as more and more land is developed for housing.  Over the next 50 years the US population is forecast to double again to 500 million, mostly along the coasts. 
 

Most of the RPA interval projections by the USFS are driven by economic analyses.  Increased wealth greatly increases the impact of any increase in human population, because wealthier people build bigger houses, shop more, and need more roads.  More people will need more food, leading to higher food prices that threaten to undo the conservation reserve program, putting reforested land back into food production.  But higher prices for timber or biomass would actually increase forested area!  With a higher value on trees, timbered lands might be worth too much to develop....

I conclude that the US needs a healthy forest products (including, somehow, forest biomass) industry to push back against the teeming urban hordes.

Are Invasive Species Evil?

Mark Davis argues against seeing invasive species as evil aliens.

In his talk today, "Invasion Biology, the Science and the Ideology" Davis lambasted a prominent paper on Garlic Mustard invasion, Ready or Not, Garlic Mustard Is Moving In: Alliaria petiolata as a Member of Eastern North American Forests. 2008. Vikki L. Rodgers, Kristina A. Stinson, Adrien C. Finzi. Bioscience. He looked up a half dozen of their key citations and showed how the original papers did not support or even directly contradicted, the claims in this prominent paper. Davis argues, persuasively, that ecologists have been too quick to lay blame on invasive plants.

He wrote a paper in 2011, Don't judge species on their origins. 2011 Nature. Mark A. Davis, et al. arguing conservationists should assess organisms on environmental impact rather than on whether they are natives. Are invasive species drivers, or passengers of species loss. They may be beneficiaries rather than agents of change. Eventually, intraspecific competition triumphs over interspecific competition as invasive species run up against resource limitations. Over time, invasive species advantages may erode as other species learn to use them as resources, too. Negative soil feedbacks accumulate over time for non-native plant species. Ecology Letters. Jeffrey M. Diez, Ian Dickie, et al.

Dr. John Reiger, Historian at SENR

Nutrient Pollution Management in 2011: New Regulations

Dr. Larry Antosch, Senior Director, Program Innovation and Environmental Policy, Ohio Farm Bureau Federation presented "Water Quality and Agricultural Nutrient Management – Many Forces Converge" to finish up the seminar series theme of Water Quality here in the School of Environment and Natural Resources. Dr. Antosch is well-placed to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date view of nutrient management and water quality, having worked in the field for 30 years, first for the EPA and now for the FBF, which recently sued the EPA over pending nutrient restrictions in the Chesapeake Bay (CB) watershed. Dr. Antosh pointed out that since Ohio is in the CB "airshed" (some of our air pollution is deposited in the CB watershed) these regulations could impact us directly. They could also impact Ohio indirectly as EPA gears up for an even bigger watershed nutrient reduction program for the entire Mississippi.

In Dr. Antosh's opinion, some of the regulatory impetus is misplaced, because science does not have all the answers yet. For example, the increased of dissolved Phosphorous (rather than particulate phosphorous) entering Lake Erie and causing harmful algal blooms, is a mystery. Farmers or cities? Which techniques could best eliminate excess nutrients? Some have even pointed to no-till as a possible source, because nutrients are applied to the surface rather than mixed in.

Although Dr. Antosch emphesized the uncertain nature of water quality science, I believe there is enough information to act today. Several simple examples come to mind: (1) Regulations against applying manure and fertilizer in the winter, when plants are not growing and hence don't absorb any of the nutrients; (2) Existing steps to eliminate phosphorous fertilization of residential lawns; (3) Creating new wetlands to filter the runoff that does occur.

Mark W. Moffett

Mark W. Moffett, who has been called "The Indiana Jones of Entomology," delivered the Museum of Biological Diversity's Annual Pubic Lecture, at 7 p.m. Friday (1/28). Moffett has penned more than 20 articles for National Geographic, which has featured nearly 500 of his images. The lecture was titled "Adventures Among Ants: One Man's Remote Explorations to Chart an Alien Social World," and dealt with how ant civilization parallels human civilization. He also has a new book out.

Explanations of Diversity in Amazonia

Dr. William Balée, Professor of Anthropology at Tulane University combined ecological and anthropological research to show that biological diversity in Amazonia is tied to prehistoric and continuing native agricultural and cultural practices. Great species lists! Intriguing idea: that humans can live in harmony with nature and anthropogenic landscapes can add to ecological diversity.

Adaptive Nitrogen Management

Harold M. van Es, Cornell University Department of Crop and Soil Sciences, Soil Health

Dr. van Es introduced his team's effort at a comprehensive, quick, and cheap soil test that goes beyond the standard chemical measurements to include physical and biological properties as well. I would like to see a paper showing how much variation in yield (b/c that is the output variable of interest to farmers) this test can account for, compared to other more comprehensive tests or even expert in-field evaluation.

Dr. van Es than discussed his work creating an adaptive nitrogen management tool that would completely bypass soil tests. His on-line tool uses rainfall patterns to estimate loss of nitrogen from corn fields and than recommends how much "booster" N to add. The benefits include less overall use of N. Interestingly, the loss of N in wet weather is exacerbated in soils with high organic carbon because of increased decomposition rates, according to Dr. van Es. Unfortunately, he did not discuss the dynamics of N under alternative farming (no synthetic fertilizer, no-till with cover crops, etc) practices that could obviate the need to even add N. I realized that one thing that's nice about monoculture corn across most of the mid-West is that the standardization makes it easier for science research to be relevant to a lot of people. It would be harder for Dr. van Es to research all the different alternative management techniques and apply recommendations for adaptive management to each.

The reason for internet-based adaptive management is a lack of real-time on-the-ground data on, say, soil moisture levels, N content, etc. But this is changing and Dr. van Es did show a few slides about what may be the future, with combines and irrigation equipment festooned with hi-tech spectrometers to gauge how much N plants have. The technique has been shown to be successful with wheat, but is still being developed on other crops.

Some links:

Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education

Alternative Farming Systems Information Center

Friday CogSci: Conditioning on perceptual cues.

Ben Backus from Penn

Dr. Backus asked the question, which pairing of perceptual stimuli can be classically conditioned? Not just learning greater acuity, but actually learning perceptual experience; "the way the world looks". Can stimuli from different modalities influence each other? See for example the illusion of simultaneiety when someone claps their hands together a fair distance away. How does perceptual learning compare with other forms (appetetive, aversive) conditioning?

Interesting that, given these illusions, Dr. Backus assumes that visual perception is "optimal" e.g. uses all sources of information. What does it mean to argue that a structured representation is "correct"?

So, is the cue arbitrary? No, some cues (unconditioned stimulus) work better than others when paired with a given conditioned stimulus. For example, sound doesn't work to flip a Necker Cube illusion, but it does work on the bouncing/ghost ball illusion. There was a lively discussion afterward and during lunch about what makes a good model species, whether evolutionary justifications can explain (not just post hoc) what cues will work and which won't.

Is learning incremental or abrupt (i.e. paradigm shift)? Incremental, although perception is abrupt ("all or nothing").

Is there a "learning to learn" effect? No.

Aspirin, tinnitus, and OAEs

Otoacoustic emissions (or OAEs) are sounds that your ear makes on its own and as a response to environmental sounds. It appears to be some sort of active resonance or tuning and is different from tinnitus, the ringing sometimes heard in quiet rooms. OAEs provide a non-invasive way of evaluating the health of the ear; OAEs disappear almost immediately upon onset of deafness or death (it was only recently that scientists realized that live ears respond differently from dead ones). Interestingly, aspirin also abolishes OAEs. This is a whole new field of research.