Cutting Trees for Water: Are Thinned Forests Wetter or Drier?

Forest thinning can be controversial.  Concerned citizens want to know when logging counts as restoration;  can thinning a forest have beneficial ecological effects beyond reducing the risk of stand-replacing wildfires?  Will cutting trees increase soil moisture because there are less "straws sucking up water", or does it decrease soil moisture due to increased windspeed and more sunlight drying out the forest understory?

April 2017 - views of Rogers Lake, AZ overlooking untreated (left) and treated (right) areas.  Photos by Conor Flynn.  Click this link to play with the slider.  

Whether thinned forests are drier or wetter is complicated.  The excellent paper "Adapting western North American forests to climate change and wildfires: 10 common questions" by Prichard et al provides a good introduction to this question:

"Decreasing canopy bulk density can change site climatic conditions (Agee and Skinner 2005). Wildfire ignition potential is largely driven by fuel moisture, which can decrease on drier sites when canopy bulk density is reduced through commercial thinning (e.g., Reinhardt et al. 2006). Reduced canopy bulk density can lead to increased surface wind speed and fuel heating, which allows for increased rates of fire spread in thinned forests (Pimont et al. 2009, Parsons et al. 2018). Other studies show no effect of thinning on surface fuel moisture (Bigelow and North 2012, Estes et al. 2012), suggesting that thinning effects on surface winds and fuel moisture are complex, site specific, and likely vary across ecoregions and seasons."

Anecdotally, some people have noticed springs beginning to flow again after thinning and prescribed fire in AZ.  My research in NM pinyon noted increased soil moisture at thinned sites (unpublished data), however this could be due to the specifics of how thinning was accomplished at those sites.  Thinned slash was chipped and the chips were left on-site without follow-up prescribed fire.

In addition to water quantity, water quality should also be considered.  Prichard et al point out that "Treatments in watersheds that are distant from the WUI and protect municipal and agricultural water supplies are critical to minimizing high-severity fire impacts that can jeopardize clean water delivery (Bladon 2018, Hallema et al. 2018). For example, post-fire erosion and debris flows may cause more detrimental and longer-term impacts to watersheds than the wildfires themselves (Jones et al. 2018, Kolden and Henson 2019)."  However, even carefully managed thinning and prescribed fire can generate excess erosion from new roads, decreased large woody debris, and increased mobility of light charred wood.  Charcoal washing into local lakes can cause fish kills, even when not generated by catastrophic wildfire.  Creating erosion-control structures as part of forest thinning work could help to mitigate these risks.  

Further research is needed to ensure that large thinning projects adequately account for water cycle restoration in addition to natural stand density and fire interval restoration.  

Is Forest Thinning Beneficial for Everyone?

 This Undark article says Pinyon jays are proposed for ESA listing because of forest restoration thinning:

“some bird biologists... are sounding the alarm that even today’s thinning methods degrade pinyon jay habitat. These woodlands are already under extreme drought stress, especially in New Mexico, with predictions for widespread loss due to climate change. And some studies suggest thinned piñon-juniper forests are less resilient to beetle infestation and drought.

 I participated in a 10-year monitoring study of thinned and unthinned Pinyon-Juniper woodlands in the Manzano mountains.  Our findings were different from those discussed in the study; we found increased soil moisture at thinned plots, which led to richer pinyon nut crops and an increase in pinyon jays.  

However, I'm not arguing that the cited studies are wrong; there may be important site-specific differences between different restoration treatments in different areas.    Some restoration can actually help pinyon jays, we just need to figure out which treatments, and how!

Hopefully, we can all agree that if a treatment isn't making things better for native plants and animals we need to rethink it; just because something is called "restoration" doesn't mean its automatically good.  That's why we need science like this.

Citation.

Tropical Reforestation

Tree Meditation
Trees are somehow a focus for my life.  Ayurveda teaches that I should be like a tree: no-harm, no killing, no lying, no stealing, no sexual misconduct, no intoxicants.  Simple clean food offered freely, with fresh air and rain.  And a place to stand and grow - upward and downward.

Earth molds water.  Water nourishes trees.  Trees touch the earth and feel the air.  Trees stand apart from all philosophy, and yet are subject to our philosophy, our economy.  Strange that in my job I plan the cutting of hundreds of trees from computer documents and databases. Somehow I am both, I have my roots in the reality of trees and mud, but my arms in the ethereal computer worlds of planning and economy, laws.

Can I do something to balance the world, something electronic for the trees?

Forest Reforestation
There are problems with many reforestation efforts. Monocultures that don't help local people, protests around the world against REDD+.  In Japan, people are waking up to the problem.  (Link)  The problem of monoculture or few species planted in US cities has led to invasive insect pests wiping out large areas, for example in Worcester, MA.  The International Society of Arboriculture says the goal should be to follow the 20% rule (max 20% of any genus/species).

Example solutions: Health in Harmony listen to people. They give people healthcare, pay them to plant and monitor forest.  Other groups like Eden also pay people to plant.  Trees for the Future tries to create sustainable agroforestry.  Search engine ecosia donates money to these and other organizations.

But I have concerns about cost effectiveness and the ability to scale.  TFTF has only helped a few thousand farmers in the 30 years they've been around.  But CharityNavigator rates these groups highly; they have good governance, but they may not be as effective.

Policy action to improve REDD+ payments could make a huge difference, but the scale is too big for me to think about, and maybe for anyone. There will always be problems with a system that big.  The Effective Altruism community's assessment of Coalition of Rainforest Nations (CoRN) tries in vain to wrap their analysis around policy.  Policy is just too amorphous to apply straightforward risk and return.

WRI's Global Forest Tracker (10 year report on deforestation) will be important to measure and monitor leakage.  Mondabay also has good rainforest statistics page.

WRI supports restoration with venture capital as a way to scale, it is unclear how this makes money. they speak in corporate-ease, another example of how the real work is in board rooms or on the ground? Its hard to tell.

Ecosia has nice on-the-ground videos showing the work they support.

Conclusion
I need to research more, learn more.  Restoration is a passion project for me, but to be professional it may need to be something like WRI or EDF. But i'm not a corporate person, being in the field is what inspires me.  Maybe, like a tree, I can grow from the earth and reach into board rooms?

The Theory and the Reality of Shelterbelt Afforestation Projects

The Theory of Shelterbelts

The Reality

Introduction:  dust bowl, us efforts

Following the dust bowl years in the U.S. the government planted 220 million trees in a strip 100 miles wide, stretching 18,600 miles from Canada to the Brazos river.  1935-1942  Today, the growth and vigor of many trees has declined due to close spacing, age, and invasion of undesirable short-lived trees.  Wikipedia.

There are currently two major afforestation programs, one in China, and one in the Sahel.

Great Green Wall in China. 

This project aims to afforest 90 million hectares and eventually contain 100 billion trees in a 4500km belt.

A recent paper by Tan (2014) found decreased dust transport due to the plantings so far.  But independent Chinese media reported in 2013 that dust storms were increasing:  For centuries in northern China, annual sandstorms, called the Yellow Dragon, have been ripping through the city.  Wind erosion is obvious and most pronounced in spring, when sandstorms are common and the vegetation is still absent or dormant after severe winter temperatures. Sandstorms have increased in the last few years, calling into question whether the Great Green Wall is working.

Liu Tuo, head of the desertification control office in the state forestry administration, is of the opinion that there are huge gaps in the country's efforts to reclaim the land that has become desert. At present there are around 1.73 million sq kilometers that have become desert in China, of which 530,000 km2 are treatable. But at the present rate of treating 1,717 km2 per year, it would take 300 years to reclaim the land that has become desert.  

Background
In early times, Korqin was not a semi-desert, but savannah-type woodland, in transition between dense forest and the steppe zone. The rolling sand-sheet was deposited during the last glacial period (12000 years BP). During 10,000 years of vegetation growth, thick dark topsoil developed. Since historical times, the region has gone through several cycles of man-induced desertification and subsequent recovery, when human pressure lessened. Fertile dark topsoil vanished and extensive dune fields gradually build up.  Overgrazing (by cattle, goats, sheep, camels, horses), clearing of land for agriculture and over-cutting of trees and shrubs in this vulnerable ecosystem have resulted in an increasingly severe land degradation and desertification.

Other Approaches?

There are many who do not believe the Green Wall is an appropriate solution to China’s desertification problems. Gao Yuchuan, the Forest Bureau head of Jingbian County, Shanxi, stated that “planting for 10 years is not as good as enclosure for one year,” referring to the alternative non-invasive restoration technique that fences off (encloses) a degraded area for two years to allow the land to restore itself.  Soil fertility, already critically low, has shown a sharp decline as all organic residues from crops are removed for fuel and fodder during wintertime. Willow and poplar stands are pollarded in autumn, before leaf fall, for the same purpose. The continuous removal of potential nutrients to the soil is not balanced by the relatively small amounts of manure and inorganic fertiliser applied to crops.

Problems

 Jiang Gaoming, an ecologist from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and proponent of enclosure, says that “planting trees in arid and semi-arid land violates [ecological] principles”.The worry is that the fragile land cannot support such massive, forced growth. Tree growth in Korqin is largely dependent on the presence of a high groundwater table, fed by percolation and inflow from the western and southern mountainous areas. The long-term trend of a decreasing depth of the groundwater table is due to an increasing demand for water to irrigate crops and for human and industrial needs. If the trees succeed in taking root, they could soak up large amounts of groundwater, which would be extremely problematic for arid regions like northern China.  For example, in Minqin, an area in north-western China, studies showed that groundwater levels have dropped by 12–19 metres since the advent of the project.

Progress So Far

As of 2009 China’s planted forest covered more than 500,000 square kilometers (increasing tree cover from 12% to 18%) – the largest artificial forest in the world.However, of the 53,000 hectares planted that year, a quarter died. In 2008 winter storms destroyed 10% of the new forest stock, causing the World Bank to advise China to focus more on quality rather than quantity in its stock species.  FAO report

But the program’s widespread tree planting campaigns typically allot only one or two species of tree to an area. Professor Jiang wrote in a 2009 Epoch Times article, “In Ningxia, for example, 70 percent of the trees planted were poplar and willow. In 2000, one billion poplar trees were lost to a disease (Anoplophora), wiping out 20 years of planting efforts.”  FAO report followup

More criticisms:  Wikipedia.

Great Green Wall in Africa - the Sahel

The Great Green Wall initiative is much more nuanced than simply planting a belt of trees across the continent: “Behind the name or the brand ‘Great Green Wall,’ different people see different things. Some people saw just a stripe of trees from east to west, but that has never been our vision,” he says. “In Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso . . . natural regeneration managed by farmers has yielded great results. We want to replicate and scale up these achievements across the region. It’s very possible to restore trees to a landscape and to restore agroforestry practices without planting any trees. This is also a sustainable way of regenerating agroforestry and parkland.”

But it should be noted that the Great Green Wall is not designed to prevent the Sahara Desert from expanding. “We are not fighting the desert,” he says. “In the majority of the areas we are working in these 11 countries, the desert is not advancing. The [Sahara] Desert is a very stable ecosystem. Of course, there are some areas on the margins—for instance in Senegal, Mauritania, and Nigeria—where there are some sand movements. But from a geographic perspective, over time the desert has been relatively stable in this area.” (Source)

But some authors advocate  "a shift from planting trees in the GGW to utilizing shrubs (e.g., Leptospermum scoparium, Boscia senegalensis, Grewia flava, Euclea undulata or Diospyros lycioides), which would have multiple benefits, including having a faster growth rate and proving the basis for silvo-pastoral livelihoods based on bee-keeping and honey production.” (Connors and Ford, 2014 Sustainability)

Four Forests Restoration Project

The draft EIS for the first 500,000 acres has been released.

Thinning work is already ongoing, but is behind schedule:

"The company said it is now thinning about 30 acres a day, which works out to about 625 acres a month. That’s a significant increase in the pace of operations since January, but still far behind the schedule established for the project nearly four years ago.  Ultimately, the company’s 10-year contract with the Forest Service requires it to clear 40,000 acres annually. In the nearly two years the company has had the contract, it has cleared about 3,700 acres. That puts the company about 70,000 acres behind the original schedule."

In my experience, in the Jemez, the major time lags are for completing NEPA and EIS and waiting for good prescribed fire weather.  Cutting the trees is fast and easy, and if they skip the fire (unnecessary and possibly environmentally detrimental) nothing should slow them down.  One of my other main criticisms from the Jemez is that they're not thinning enough trees to reduce the basal area to the most beneficial levels.  I know the ideal density and pattern of trees has been argued about ad infinitum... it seems they are trying to avoid conflict by cutting less trees, which totally defeats the purpose of preventing catastrophic crown fire.