The best data comes from Hull Sieg, Carolyn, et al. "Best predictors for postfire mortality of ponderosa pine trees in the Intermountain West." Forest Science 52.6 (2006): 718-728.
This graph shows probability of death based on both “crown consumption” (actual burning of the crown) and “crown scorch” (browning of needles due to heat injury). It shows that probability of tree death increases above 50% when Crown Scorch increases past 75%, whereas tree death is above 50% when crown consumption is only 25%. A combination of the two is determined to be the best predictor of tree mortality.
Here are some diagrams of crown scorch and crown consumption. In general, if there are brown needles on the tree that is scorch, if they are black or missing it is consumption.
(from Tree and forest restoration following wildfire by Peter Kolb)
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