Thursday, January 28, 2021

"Improper" Tree Hazard Assessments?

The Summer 2020 issue of FSEEE Forest News argues that the Forest Service improperly uses tree hazard assessments to justify closing public lands.

Based on the article, it appears that FS spokespeople have not always done a good job communicating the reason for post-fire closure areas.  There are many reasons to close areas post-fire, but tree risk assessments by themselves would probably not justify backcountry trail closures. 

The FS Field Guide for Hazard Tree Identification and Mitigation cited in the article applies a numerical probability assessment to hazards by scoring Failure Indicators and adding these with Damage Potential to obtain a numerical Hazard Rating.   This methodology would be familiar to any arborist and follows standard arboriculture practices.  If there are dead or damaged trees around developed FS facilities or campgrounds than clearly there would be a high Hazard Rating and it would make sense to close those areas until the hazard can be mitigated.  But applying this same methodology to backcountry trails would result in scores that are relatively low because of the sparse or nonexistent targets for the hazard trees. So on this point the Forest News article is correct: hazard trees alone do not justify backcountry forest closures.

However, there are other hazards in recently burned areas besides dead trees, including active restoration/revegetation projects, burned-out root systems, unstable soils, potential debris flows, and obscured or impassable trails.  It may make sense to close these areas to the public until trails can be repaired or ongoing restoration work is completed.  

Wednesday, January 20, 2021

2020 Disasters

 


https://www.noaa.gov/stories/record-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-struck-us-in-2020


Carbon offset controversy

 

https://carbon180.medium.com/in-search-of-carbon-removal-offsets-42abf71b3ccc


https://forestpolicypub.com/2020/12/10/bloomberg-green-on-the-nature-conservancy-and-meaningless-carbon-offsets/



Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Regenerative Agriculture Controversy?

 https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/05/regenerative-agriculture-climate-change


https://agfundernews.com/opinion-where-the-world-resources-institute-got-it-wrong-about-regenerative-agriculture.html


https://undark.org/2020/01/31/podcast-43-regenerative-agriculture/

Saturday, January 02, 2021

China's Inspiration

 The CCP's use of internal-directed propaganda sounds like any successful corporation in the US. (that is a good thing.) Most US companies constantly role out initiatives, revise their mission and value statements, conduct constant surveillance and try to inspire workers with shared goals from the C-suit down to the entry level worker. Any organization that can achieve alignment will have higher morale and be more productive that one that cannot achieve this.  There are a number of sacrifices necessary to live in a democratic state, but I think this essay points at one of the most important: the lack of inspiration.

Thursday, December 24, 2020

Habitat in the Endangered Species Act


Response to Jake Li's response to FWS revised definition of "habitat".

A couple of points about critical habitat.  First, it is often not stated by those who understand the ESA, and often misunderstood by those who do not, that critical habitat designations only have regulatory force on federal lands or for projects that involve a federal nexus (such that a federal agency would consult with FWS). While this may seem like nitpicking, it is crucial to understand the regulatory impact of the change in definition, as many federal agencies do not rely exclusively on critical habitat designations but instead consult with FWS based on the SME of their biologists whenever a project may impact a listed species.  

For private land, where many people are most worried about critical habitat, any changes in the areas designated would have little to no impact due to the fact that critical habitat has little to no impact on private land.

Second, it is interesting to consider how this change in the definition of habitat would affect monarchs. I think it would not affect monarch habitat due to the inclusion of "ephemeral and seasonal habitat" in the definition.  Even if monarchs only inhabit an area for a few months of the year, that area could still be designated critical habitat. 

You write that the 7a habitat protection is redundant if an area is occupied (and therefore protected by the jeopardy prohibition).  But monarchs (and many other species) only seasonally occupy parts of their critical habitat, so the 7a protection will continue to be relevant in those cases. 


---

Thoughts about possible monarch listing:


Planting milkweed habitat

Some people are afraid of creating milkweed habitat because apparently they think they would never be able to destroy or modify this habitat.  I find this unlikely.  More likely is that they would be restricted from destroying or modifying the habitat while monarch caterpillars are present.  During winter months, they could destroy this habitat without adversely affecting individual monarchs.  Habitat protection in the ESA is often misunderstood on this point.


CCAA

I assume that monarchs will be listed.  Even so, there are many reasons for not joining CCAA, but I will focus on reasons that FWS enforcement will not be detrimental to business operations at companies with well-developed IVM programs.

A mature IVM program already has the goal to move away from mowing/mastication toward spot treatment of incompatibles with herbicide.  Although there will need to be mowing in some areas, the reason for mowing is that the areas are overgrown with woody vegetation. Therefore these areas would not support monarch milkweed habitat.

There may be incidental work in monarch milkweed habitat, but most of this work would not impact monarch breeding. For example tree cutting. I consider it unlikely the FWS would broadly restrict all activities in monarch milkweed habitats, due to the vast and unenforceable impact this would have on ordinary activities across the country.

I believe FWS will restrict some activities that would impact monarch milkweed habitat, during the monarch breeding season, especially ground-disturbing activities.  Biological opinions for species impacted by ground disturbing work implement mitigation measures that include timing restrictions and crew trainings.  FWS has provided incidental take statements based on these mitigation measures and reporting requirements.  I expect a similar scenario when monarch are listed. 

Wednesday, December 09, 2020

What is a Scientist?

"Science is a way of thinking, not an answer."

I hope to explain what science really is, and why its such a good thing (one of the most important in life).  But first, let's start with some examples:

Is Mr A a scientist? He worships spaghetti monster. Doesn't matter, lots of Christians are scientific and they worship similar gods.

Is Mr B a scientist?  He believes Earth goes around sun, is made of atoms, and humans evolved from prehistoric primates because he reads science books.  Doesn't matter what you believe.  Just because its in a book....

Ms. C read a website that earth is flat and evolution is a hoax.  Is one "right" and one "wrong"?  Maybe, but saying one is "science" and one isn't isn't the point.


What is a Scientist?

1) Open mind

2) Respect institutions that promote learning (process)

3) Experimentation

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Sleep Apnea: Research and Self-Experimentation Results

 Abstract

I tested several sensors that claim to measure sleep apnea through optical measurement of blood oxygen content.

Background

Blood oxygen arterial saturation (Sa02) is approximated by Sp02.  At 5,000 feet elevation, Sp02 should be above 92%. Values under 90% are considered low.  Hypoxemia is dangerously low blood oxygen, defined as Sp02 <88% for more than 5 minutes.   (Hypoxia is low tissue oxygen levels)

An oxygen saturation level over 95 percent is considered normal. Anything below 92 percent oxygen may be a sign of breathing problems during sleep, such as sleep apnea or another disorder like severe snoring, COPD or asthma.  (Low levels can also be caused by anemia.)

Sleep apnea is characterized by a cessation of airflow lasting 10 seconds or more. Hypopnea (shallow breathing resulting in desaturation) is a decrease in airflow lasting 10 seconds or more with a 30% oxygen reduction and a 3 to 4% desaturation from the baseline. It is not uncommonpatients with sleep apnea to desaturate below 88%. 

Note: low Sp02 is an indicator of sleep apnea and is not necessarily the mechanism of the bad effects.  It may be possible to not have hypoxemia, but still have interrupted sleep.  

Sleep apnea and hypopnea can cause small awakenings that disrupt normal sleep cycles.  This can cause irregular heart beats, high blood pressure, blood sugar excursions, strokes, heart attacks, etc.  Most common effect is to create chronic, elevated stress response.  

Results

- Fitbit Charge 2 never showed any apnea episodes

- Biostrap showed several, including some that my wife didn't remember

- Wellue 02 ring showed several mild episodes per night.  Based on other testing, this sensor seemed potentially the most accurate, but location on finger wasn't comfortable.  Also ended up not being accurate because I sometimes sleep on my arm, cutting off circulation, which reduces Sp02.

Conclusion

I have been diagnosed with mild sleep apnea and my wife has no known apnea.  We both tried the Sp02 wearable sensors and they consistently showed the same level of apneas between us, either none (Fitbit) or mild (Wellue 02 Ring).  Based on the lack of a clear and actionable signal from these sensors, I no longer use them to track apnea events.  Instead I focus on trying to minimize possible breathing issues and promote general good sleep hygiene to try to improve restfulness. 



Monday, June 01, 2020

Covid and evidence for/against the Efficient Market Hypothesis

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-01/stocks-are-trying-to-forget-2020

Why is the stock market doing so well?

"If in 2019 you built a stock-price model that projected out 100 years of income, you will have to adjust one or two columns for 2020 and 2021, but after that everything can stay exactly the same."

The market movement this year seems to support this simplistic hypothesis and refute "short term-ism" critique of market.


https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/utySCY9nJt9xGYGGQ/the-emh-aten-t-dead

Argues that just because some people could make some money "beating" the market doesn't mean that they didn't get lucky and apply flawed post hoc reasoning.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tonKatiDTzTP8LrEk/zoom-technologies-inc-vs-the-efficient-markets-hypothesis

Argues that EMH needs to be restated, as market predicts the future value of the market, which could be totally "irrational" compared to the real world.

Sunday, May 31, 2020

Blood oxygen concentration during Wim Hof breathing

 Here is some interesting data:  Blood oxygen concentration and heart rate during three cycles of Wim Hof hyperventilation and breath holding.

Total elapsed time 14 minutes.  3rd breath hold I went two minutes and bottomed out the blood O2 meter!




Method: 

Followed "Guided Wim Hof Method Breathing" video on Youtube.  

Used Wellue O2 Ring Blood Oxygen Monitor to measure blood oxygen. I tested several wrist spO2 monitors and this finger spO2 monitor is much faster and more accurate.