Welcome to the High Desert of New Mexico, USA

Surviving in the High Desert of New Mexico is like visiting another planet.

I suggest you find a house with a good airlock and sunshade, but you won't be able to filter out the cosmic rays; living up here is like being an airline stewardess.

The desert has a way of simplifying human needs: water, oxygen, respect (for the sun), oh, and more water.

The most important thing is water. You have to drink all the time. When you wake up in the morning you must drink a full nalgene; you've lost at least that much through exhalation during the night. I suggest miso bone broth soup to replace the electrolytes as well. Its dry here and you can't always tell when you're sweating because evaporation is so efficient.

Sometimes you can't drink enough water. The answer is coconut water. Always keep some at hand in case of emergencies.

High altitude. One of the commonest complaints (after dehydration, always check that first) is low oxygen. People forget to breathe. You have to really move that diaphragm! Ginseng and other tonifying herbs might help, too. Oh, and bone broth soup. Think like a sherpa.

Sun. I used to go without sunblock, but we're too close to the sun here. Respect the sun. Always wear sunblock when you have exposed skin - or wear a burkha. UV-blocking sunglasses are also, sadly, necessary. I hate wearing glasses, but if you don't the Light will wash away your world. Yes, it is possible to sunburn the back of your eyes.  8-(

Moisturizer. Dry skin is serious. One secret to prevent over-drying is to always end showers with cold water; it tones the muscles and closes pores in the skin so you don't lose all your hard-earned moisture. Never, ever use drying soap. I don't think that should be a problem, but I'm warning you now: Don't let cracks form on your hands or it will be Too Late, and you'll be covered in bandages like a mummy.

 Welcome to New Mexico!

Solar Insolation in the West

Climate Crunch

Deconstructing Conclusions

During the winter of 2009-2010 I began investigating climate science, and since then have been reading in the field on-and-off. Again this last winter I have been reading way too much, trying to get to the bottom of various intricacies of the coupled earth-human system. Suffice to say, the Earth's climate is extremely complex, and every scientific sub-discipline has made its own peace with the devil in the details. Getting to the bottom of what scientists believe, and why, is no easy task, and after more than a year of research I have learned a huge amount about the Earth, but still am not definitively convinced about every aspect of climate change science.

This is as it should be. Science is complex and ever-evolving, and the Earth is a very, very complicated place. But provisional results and untested assumptions, although ever-present, make soft bedrock for climate policy. The truth is that we simply do not understand many of the key issues, such as feedbacks, in the climate system.

Many issues, such as divergence in tree-ring proxy records, don't by themselves discredit the theory of anthropogenic global warming, even if scientists can't explain everything. But they do begin to cast doubts. The issue of "hide the decline" probably falls into this category, because although some scientists chose to substitute instrument data for the misbehaving paleo data, the divergance can be explained. But is this explanation just hand-waving? How do we really know what happened hundreds or thousands of years ago? Obviously climate proxies may be complicated, idiosyncratic, and only reliable under certain conditions. It has been said that "trees are not thermometers," but this admission, even if carefully defined, can lead to increasing skepticism.

Unresolved Issues

Skeptic Science (SkS) has a great index of skeptic arguments, many of which continue to be problematic. They attempt to "refute" each argument, and they are the best source for good answers to most of these issues. But not every question can be answered definitively. Sometimes one question simply leads to three or four more. For example, they point out that warming is not due to the sun....but it is very, very, complicated. SkS explains why CO2 lags temperature in paleoclimate....but their response is not good system thinking, doesn't address the skeptic arguments about what the Vostok ice core means, and isn't especially convincing.

I've been researching climate change for over a year, and still am not close to understanding many of the major issues. What's worse, I can't find good evidence that the climate scientists understand all of the issues either! Much of science is dependent on good faith and trust, but at some point an explanation has to be convincing. Some theories (and I would put String Theory and Global Warming into this category) are too gnarly to be comprehended by mere mortals. They may be true, but I can't believe in what I don't understand.

The bottom line is that, if you really want to know,... its complicated. I'm officially revoking my previous conclusion, pending better explanations of the science. Maybe I'll have to wait to believe the models until they're proved true: until then I'll continue to entertain belief in multiple possibilities about this weird, beautiful world we live on.

More Paleoclimate Links:

NASA Climate Monitoring

NOAA paleoclimate

A History of Paleoclimatology

Sunspots, Space Weather, and the Earth

Prikryl et al 2009: Solar magnetic sector boundary passage (SBP) and vorticity area index (VAI), by weather reconstruction ERA-40 dataset back to 1963-2002, confirmed the "Wilcox effect". The interplanetary magnetic field and associated "space weather" directly effect Earth's weather.

News from Dr. Leif Svalgaard at Stanford:

Wolf was right...we can use magnetic field strength to calibrate solar irradiance. The correlation between solar far-UV radiation and geomagnetic force on the Earth's surface is extremely good;

now we have an objective calibration for sunspot number.
The conclusion? Leif 2007 finds no long-term trend in solar irradience from at least 1600. through the present.

On track for increased solar activity

Earth Observatory.