Covid and evidence for/against the Efficient Market Hypothesis

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-01/stocks-are-trying-to-forget-2020

Why is the stock market doing so well?

"If in 2019 you built a stock-price model that projected out 100 years of income, you will have to adjust one or two columns for 2020 and 2021, but after that everything can stay exactly the same."

The market movement this year seems to support this simplistic hypothesis and refute "short term-ism" critique of market.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/utySCY9nJt9xGYGGQ/the-emh-aten-t-dead

Argues that just because some people could make some money "beating" the market doesn't mean that they didn't get lucky and apply flawed post hoc reasoning.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tonKatiDTzTP8LrEk/zoom-technologies-inc-vs-the-efficient-markets-hypothesis

Argues that EMH needs to be restated, as market predicts the future value of the market, which could be totally "irrational" compared to the real world.

How much is a human life worth?

From a 2008 article in the Washington Post: Several federal agencies have come up with figures for the dollar value of a human life to analyze the costs and benefits of new programs they believe will save lives. A sampling:

According to the Principles of Economics by Gregory Mankiw, economics calculate the

value of a human life by looking "at the risks that people are voluntarily willing to

take and how much they must be paid for taking them".

For example, the decision to work as a contractor in Iraq involved placing a monetary value on

years of extended life. Assuming an annual risk of death of 0.004 and a salary

premium of $30,000 per year over comparable jobs in the United States, contractors in

Iraq are essentially compensated at a rate of $250,000 per statistical year of life. A recent survey of estimates based on occupational risk that found a range from $500,000 to $21 million per statistical life year depending on how dangerous the work is. If someone will accept a 1-in-10,000 chance of death for $500, then the value of life

must be 10,000 times $500, or $5 million.

An example of this kind of analysis was used by the federal Consumer Product Safety

Commission this year:A proposal to make mattresses less flammable was expected to cost the industry $343 million to implement. But, a spokeswoman said, the move was also expected to save 270 people. The commission calculated that each life was worth $5 million, which meant a

benefit of about $1.3 billion.

This total value can also be annualized. The World Health Organization has proposed $108,609 as the value of a disability-adjusted life year, while a recent study by Lee et al using Medicare willingness-to-pay, estimated it as $129,000. Lee notes that this figure compares to a range of $50,000 to $100,000 used in other countries, such as Australia and the UK, which run national health care systems in guiding their coverage decisions.

see: EPA's mortality risk valuation

The fact of the matter is that monetary valuations of human life are a necessary step in triage. However, as Risk and Decision-Making researchers know, individual's valuations of their own and others lives is rarely consistent or logical. For example, many people complain bitterly about automobile or factory pollution, while themselves being one of the largest, willful, and unnecessary sources of pollution:

Money in the 2010 Election

thanks to The Big Picture blog

Financial Revolution

Revolution?
Pull with every ounce and fiber --total war-- if monkey wrenches or bazookas worked, we'd have them...the criterion for our Revolution is Sustainability. All extractive industries, premised as they are on destruction, are dead ends. Limitless growth within limited resources is illogical and unsustainable.

“Two paths lie before us. One leads to death, the other to life. If we choose the first path… we in effect become allies of death, and in everything we do our attachment to life will weaken; our vision, blinded to the abyss that has opened at our feet, will dim and grow confused; our will discouraged by the thought of trying to build on such a precarious foundation anything that is meant to last, will slacken; and we will sink into stupefication, as though we were gradually weaning ourselves from life in preparation for the end.

"On the other hand, if we reject our doom, and bend our efforts toward survival...then the anesthetic fog will lift;our vision, no longer straining not to see the obvious, will sharpen; our will, finding secure ground to build on,will be restored; and we will take full and clear possession of life again. One day- and it is hard to believe that it will not be soon- we will make our choice.”
Jonathan Schell - The Fate of the Earth

Post-Industrial
Their economic arguments are no longer valid. "Those who make it an us-against-them problem insure that it is an insolvable problem." But, since they are invested in self-perpetuating self-interest, they will fight against us, the people. So we will fight back. But ours is NOT a negative vision: we are working toward a post-industrial world where sustainable industries can grow to replace the pirate corporations.

Citizens have a responsibility to steer capital to create wealth sustainably. Part of this is understanding the nature of wealth; wealth differently defined from the outdated GDP measures of the economists. It is not money. It is not more asthma, cancer, and high blood pressure. It is understanding; understanding that wilderness has more value than consumption, that local organic food is net-cheaper than processed...We are motivated by this vision that is more than logic. It is passion that keeps us awake at night.

Post-Capitalist?
Investing in mutual funds and stocks of large corporations is not Honorable or Responsible. Handing over your accumulated money, which is time and power, to the corporations so that they can spend it for you -- doesn't it smack of feudalism?? Venture capital is usually OK, because it is usually administered personally. Also, VC investment returns are based on actual dividends (i.e. profits) as opposed to stocks, which are only really a glorified casino whose expected payouts are a shell game of speculation not directly tied to any real dividend. Real Estate is also a good investment, for the same reasons of promoting, rather than abnegating, personal responsibility.

I'm not arguing for a return to the gold standard, or trying to repeal the law of comparative advantage, but do understand what is real and what isn't. Hold onto tangibles, especially property...or better yet, don't make any money to begin with. "All money, in whatever form, should be put into land conservation." To really invest in the future, invest in preservation of our vital natural heritage that provides the fresh air we breath and the clean water we drink. The ultimate revolution is understanding what is important.

We Are What We Eat

Money is a symbolic metaphorical system

Money is the greatest invention. A friend of mine is trying to invent a new money, he calls it "stars" (as in I have five star bucks) and plans to compete with uncle sam. But money, and American money in particular, is universal in the economy. Better to call his alternative "smiles", because a smile means in the same thing no matter what language you speak.

A Peruvian economist, who has become a national celebrity (link needed), wrote a book comparing the free market winners and looses, and concluded that globalization favors those with liquid assets. Liquid means interconvertable from one physical form to another. This is the basic insight of metaphors, and it is what makes private property and money so valuable. A good system of money can convert anything into anything else, whether it be farming rights, wheat, or human organs.

It is at heart a symbolic notation system that can be manipulated across time and space. I qualify for a $100,000 home loan because the bank knows that the home can be converted (bank auction) back into money at any time. In developing countries, the metaphorical system is shakier. People don't trust its (admittedly fantastical) conversions and machinations, and even if they did, there are more things there that money can't buy. For example, traditional grazing rights are not codified or written down.

In this sense, money is the logical conclusion of written language. Roman numerals are more universal than English words. American money is the translation between the two. The transition from literal to metaphorical culture was fought by the Catholic church, who didn't understand or approve of lending at interest, creating something from nothing by doing no work, only accepting risk.

Re: gambling vs. investing vs. buying. When you buy something it depreciates, or there is a restocking fee, and you have less money after awhile. When you invest in something, it may appreciate (increase in equity) and you'll have even more money to buy/invest in even more things -- power of positive feedback). Resistance to borrowing debt is symptomatic of this old fear, and guilty of ignorance of the power of equity feedback. But we did loose something when we started calculating human lives in monetary terms. "One of the first things a student of Old English has to learn is that the word that looks like sell usually means "give." " Interestingly, it was traditional to pay a certain amount of money to appease the family of a murdered man, his ransom.

What are things worth? Rare: moss in washington is worthless, but in Arizona it becomes rare and beautiful.
What are things worth? Kramer didn't pay me rent for living in my house for two weeks, but I let him do it because the "lost' money was the worth of his visiting me.

Heavy Metal Antibiotics: The Oligodynamic effect and Homeopathy

That silver, copper, and possibly germanium (and many other metals) have antibiotic properties is known as the oligodynamic effect, and is widely used in sterile gauze and other mainstream medical applications. Interestingly, these same toxic metals may have growth-stimulating effects in ultra-low doses; known as the Arndt-Schultz law ("small doses stimulate; medium doses inhibit; large doses kill"), from homeopathy.

On a related note, what is the shiny stuff on the new $20 bill? Copper? Gold? Plastic?