Saving Biodiversity is Essential to Stop Global Warming

This simple message -that we can't save the Earth without saving the actual physical, water-and-soil-and-plant Earth- needs to be said and re-said until everyone understands.  

We've been disappointed by the scientists, leaders, and especially the "environmentalists" (like Sierra Club, Audubon, Union of Concerned Scientists, etc...) who have decided to advocate for industrial "renewable" energy as the only solution.  They've looked at the massive environmental destruction required to mine, manufacture, and construct solar and wind farms and connecting transmission lines - and said yes, we must destroy the world to save the world.

However, there is hope within the current system.  The push to save biodiversity, while sometimes sidelined, has significant support in the COP15 agreement.  That agreement, and related work by TNFD, will have to be considered, often for the very first time, by every company and gov't with sustainability disclosures.  

Even the IPCC addresses the importance of land use - the latest AR6* still shows global photosynthesis absorbing net carbon every year, despite human land-use change continuing to destroy that literal lifeblood of our planet.  

All numbers are gigatonnes of Carbon.  Image Source: Hillis, David.  Life: The Science of Biology.  Textbook published 2020 by Macmillan Higher Ed.  

According to the diagram above, net plant growth (photosynthesis - respiration) stores 3 gigatonnes/year of carbon, offsetting almost 1/3 of the yearly emissions from fossil fuels (9.5 gigatonnes/year).  However, human-altered land use and human-caused fires emit another 2 gigatonnes/year of carbon to the atmosphere.   A gigatonne is about twice the weight of all the humans in the world. (Source: https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Gigatonne)

Also, the upcoming (in 2024) standards for including land use change in Scope 1/2/3 emissions reporting will explicitly tie real environmental destruction (clearing forests, bulldozing farmland) to the statistics that accountants love to worship, total tons of carbon emitted.  Now developers (even of renewable energy) can't ignore the cost that continued industrialization has to the Earth's life-giving ability to absorb and store carbon.  

Source: https://ghgprotocol.org/land-sector-and-removals-guidance

Hopefully, with all of these connections being made, people will finally start to give credit where credit is due, and give thanks to our beautiful, fragile planet for all it does for us.

*IPCC overview diagrams of global carbon sinks and sources:

 AR6 (2023) : https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-5/figure-5-12/

AR5 (2013) overview: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Simplified-schematic-of-the-global-carbon-cycle-IPCC-2013-Numbers-represent-carbon_fig4_281185559

AR4 (2007) overview: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-global-carbon-cycle-boxes-are-carbon-pools-and-the-arrows-the-fluxes-between-them_fig2_255642401

Which State has the MOST ticks?

 Ticks spread a number of diseases, plus they are disgusting and annoying.  But which areas have the most?  Where do hikers need to take precautions?  Models have attempted to create "heat maps" showing when and where ticks are most abundant.  Another approach uses citizen science data:  where do people report seeing the most ticks?

I used iNaturalist data to compare relative abundance of ticks in several US states.  iNaturalist users post photos of observations on the website, which can be easily queried in the Explore tab.  However, some areas of the country have many more people using iNaturalist, so it is necessary to standardize the data by dividing by the total number of observations in each area.  This creates a metric of the relative abundance of tick observations compared to total observations.  

Another potential confounder is if some people specifically observe as many ticks as possible.  This could skew the results if one state had someone obsessed with tick photography, and another state didn't.  I corrected for this by subtracting observations from the #1 tick observer in each state.  Only one state (CA) had this problem.  This correction did not substantially change the results in CA, or any state.  

Data compiled from iNaturalist.org

The state/area with the most reports of ticks was California, but CA also had the greatest total number of observations of all life forms.  When corrected for relative abundance, CA is near the middle of the distribution.  Hartford, CT, famous for its tick abundance, topped the list.  Arizona and Washington had the lowest relative abundance.  Other top areas included MA, CT, ME, PA, and NY.

ESA-Listed Species in AZ: Status and Needs

Notes from Alexandra Permar's research into the current status and needs of ESA listed species in AZ.

Candidates Species for Listing

Monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/9743

 

Species with T/E Listing Status and Active Recovery Plans

Ute ladies'-tresses (Spiranthes diluvialis) (Threatened, G2): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/2159 | https://swbiodiversity.org/seinet/taxa/index.php?taxon=102217 | https://explorer.natureserve.org/Taxon/ELEMENT_GLOBAL.2.129296/Spiranthes_diluvialis

Welsh's milkweed (Asclepias welshii) (Threatened): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/8400 |

https://swbiodiversity.org/seinet/taxa/index.php?taxon=3793#:~:text=Plant%3A%20perennial%20herb%3B%20stems%20erect,base%2C%20obtuse%20to%20mostly%20rounded%2D

Opportunity to survey for this species in northern AZ 

Recovery plan implementation progress is only about half done (maybe less than half).

Original delisting date (goal): 2010.

Needed: species surveys (in known and unknown locales in northern AZ) as well as communication campaigns to increase awareness and appreciation for the species.

Revised recovery documents (two five-year reviews) published in 2015 and 2021 indicate USFWS is collaborating with researchers at NAU and has hired private botanists to survey for this species in recent years. The botanists have conducted surveys and some research (e.g., controlled breeding in potted soils vs. native sandy soil type) which the USFWS is using. However, these two five-year plans (especially the 2015 one) reiterate the continuing need for many recovery activities including "… repetitive, standardized, rigorous surveys …."

Canelo Hills ladies'-tresses (Spiranthes delitescens) (Endangered): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/8098 | https://swbiodiversity.org/seinet/taxa/index.php?taxon=2715

Researchers with Desert Botanical Garden in Phoenix are researching this species (and using research dogs to find the plants--AZNPS Flagstaff chapter lecture on 09.19.2023)

San Francisco Peaks ragwort (Packera franciscana) (Threatened): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/1721 | https://swbiodiversity.org/seinet/taxa/index.php?taxon=567

USFS Rocky Mtn Research Sta. is researching the species (population, effects of climate change). They have research transects in the San Francisco peaks where they perturb and observe populations of P. fransciscana through time.

New Mexico meadow jumping mouse (Zapus hudsonius luteus) (Endangered): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/7965

There is ample work underway to protect this species (USFWS, NAU, AZGFD).

This species depends on mesic habitats in- and around wetlands which are rare in AZ.

Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida) (Threatened): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/B074

This species has been listed for a while and receives significant attention.

Sonoran tiger salamander (Ambystoma mavortium stebbinsi) (Endangered): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/D01H | https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/2096 | https://awcs.azgfd.com/species/amphibians/ambystoma-mavortium-stebbinsi | https://explorer.natureserve.org/Taxon/ELEMENT_GLOBAL.2.103735/Ambystoma_mavortium_stebbinsi

Need: Analyze data for AZGFD (population monitoring surveys conducted 2012-14) and USFWS (population monitoring protocol implemented 4x annually from 2004-13). It seems there has not been population monitoring conducted since 2014 in AZ. ??

Need: Conduct salamander surveys in Sonora, MX.

Recovery plan update conveys that USFWS et al. have reviewed the 10-year survey data and used it to understand the current status of the species. On the whole, the species is better off than I would've guessed; continuing concerns include bullfrogs, non-native predatory fish/crayfish, drought, reliance on cattle tanks for habitat, and climate change. Interestingly, periodic/episodic drought which dries some of the ponds/cattle tanks where the salamanders reside is actually good for the salamanders b/c predatory fish/crayfish/bullfrogs don't survive dry periods well. As a species, the salamanders depend on cattle tanks for habitat in AZ.

Chiricahua leopard frog (Rana chiricahuensis) (Threatened): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/D02F

This species has been listed for a while and receives significant attention.

Arizona Cliffrose (Purshia (=Cowania) subintegra) (Endangered): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/866

Botanists have already surveyed for this species and found all there is to find.

Masked bobwhite (quail) (Colinus virginianus ridgwayi) (Endangered): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/3484

This species is controlled through controlled active breeding programs and introductions at the Buenos Aires NWR; it seems most of the program isn't working that well. The controlled reproduction includes "foster parenting" of chicks. (When researchers introduce a masked-bobwhite-quail chick into BA NWR, they also introduce an adult male of another quail species with the chick; the male is supposed to foster the chick.) This species will probably go extinct.

Nichol's Turk's head cactus (Echinocactus horizonthalonius var. nicholii) (Endangered): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/5343

This species has already received ample attention; the recovery plan may resolve in this decade.

Bartram's stonecrop (Graptopetalum bartramii) (Threatened): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/8382 | https://swbiodiversity.org/seinet/taxa/index.php?taxon=3117&clid=3130

Difficult to survey for this species b/c it grows in "steep canyons" near water.

Jones Cycladenia (Cycladenia humilis var. jonesii) (Threatened): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/3336 | https://swbiodiversity.org/seinet/taxa/index.php?taxauthid=1&taxon=3703&clid=2670#:~:text=Plant%3A%20perennial%20herb%2C%201%2D,of%20follicles%205%2D10%20cm

This is a newly listed species (Aug 2021); it requires ample attention. Need habitat assessments and plant surveys, possibly also pollinator studies. However, most of this species' distribution is in Utah.

Kearney's blue-star (Amsonia kearneyana) (Endangered): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/7485 | https://swbiodiversity.org/seinet/taxa/index.php?taxon=1408#:~:text=Plant%3A%20perennial%20herb%3B%204%2D,broadest%20below%20the%20apex%2C%20slightly

Need census of species subsites; monitoring of species individuals and their habitat; education/outreach re: species conservation and recovery; surveys for new individuals and subsites.

This species used to be synonymous with A. palmeri which we found near Hillside, AZ in April, 2023 (https://www.inaturalist.org/observations/158329553).

Access to state- and tribal lands is restricted and inhibits botanical surveying efforts.

It is challenging to find the species in its native habitat; it grows in steep canyons and on cliffsides with slopes >= 20 degrees.

The survey sites for this species are paired with a nearby experimental site on BLM land where researchers are conducting controlled introductions of this species and observing their survival rates.

Pima pineapple cactus (Coryphantha scheeri var. robustispina) (Endangered): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/4919 | https://swbiodiversity.org/seinet/taxa/index.php?taxon=3428

This species has been listed for a while and probably receives enough attention.

Species with T/E listing but without active recovery plans

Yellow-billed Cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus) (Threatened): https://ecos.fws.gov/ecp/species/B06R

Many people are researching this species. However, survey data from the past 15-20 years for the Upper Verde region is missing from the Audubon Southwest AZ IBA Database. Need to coordinate with USFWS and Audubon SW to track down the data and analyze it. 

Need a 10(a)1(A) scientific research permit with the USFWS.

Description of Upper Verde River habitat (Yavapai County, AZ) is in USFWS Critical Habitat document (FR Vol. 86, No. 75, 04.21.2021) on pages 20855, 20881.

AZGFD management decisions (made for fish) in the Upper Verde watershed are--according to the USFWS--proving relatively sufficient to maintain suitable habitat for the YBCU. Thus, the USFWS has decided to not declare critical habitat for the cuckoo in the Upper Verde River watershed (AZGFD asked USFWS to not declare critical habitat here).

References cited in the USFWS Federal Register critical habitat document indicate that AZGFD, USFWS, and partners have analyzed recent data from the Upper Verde River watershed and find the cuckoo numbers (occupancy, breeding, migration) to be satisfactory. However, I searched for these original reference documents and was unable to find any of them.

Finding the Greenest Place in Arizona

 I love plants, and I love places where plants are happy.  But how can I find the greenest places, especially when I live in Arizona?

In the Southwest deserts, plant phenology and growth are dependent on intermittent rains.  But the rains can be variable between nearby areas. 

Rainfall totals and percent of normal can be viewed using https://water.weather.gov/precip/ This uses observed (radar) precipitation. 

Displaying Last 90-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation from Sep. 20.

However, more important than total rainfall over the growing season is timing of rainfall.  A single deluge that brought 3 inches last week to an area that hasn't seen rain in 6 months, is not as effective in stimulating plant growth as regular weekly or biweekly 0.5 inch storms.

A better approach to locating areas of high plant growth is using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), or observed "greenness" from satellites.  Data updates every week or couple of weeks, depending on the satellite.

But some areas, like forests, will always look greener than other areas, like deserts.  What we really want to locate are areas of anomalous greenness.

This UA webpage calculates departures from last week, last year, and from the average year.

VIIRS NDVI difference from average from Sep 6.

Other resources include the USGS Vegetation Drought Model, VegDRI.  The Vegetation Drought Response Index (VegDRI) shows seasonal drought impacts on vegetation. The weekly index is produced using a model trained on the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index using MODIS satellite-derived greenness anomaly integrated with precipitation, land cover, soils, and other biophysical data sets. Updated every Monday by 10 AM. 

VIIRS NDVI as shown by the USGS VegDRI model.

Clicking on the map generates a time series, which can be useful to compare seasonal and yearly changes at a location.

Graph of VegDRI drought index for a location in Yavapai County over the last 4 years.

The United Nation's FAO also maintains an NDVI anomaly drought mapper that uses the European satellite AVHRR.  However, the data is only provided at the scale of entire nations.  

So where is the greenest place in Arizona?  As you may have noticed from the screenshots above, that depends on who you're asking!  I hope to "ground-truth" some of these models to learn which are most reliable for greenness-hunting.

How Advocates Stopped Aerial Insecticide Spray in NM

APHIS (a U.S. Government agency) routinely broadcasts insecticides across millions of acres of the Western U.S., in an attempt to control populations of grasshoppers.  Climate change (warmer winters, drier summers) has led to an increase of grasshoppers over the last decade, and APHIS has tried to keep pace.  https://acis.cals.arizona.edu/community-ipm/home-and-school-ipm-newsletters/ipm-newsletter-view/ipm-newsletters/2023/06/07/grasshoppers

Unfortunately, broad-scape application of pesticides harms numerous other animals (and people).  

A recent attempt to use airplanes to spray pesticides over the Rio Chama watershed in New Mexico was protested and eventually cancelled: https://www.xerces.org/blog/how-advocates-stopped-aerial-insecticide-spray-on-25000-acres-of-new-mexico-natural-areas

More Info:

Overview of Program:  https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/planthealth/plant-pest-and-disease-programs/pests-and-diseases/grasshopper-mormon-cricket/CT_Grasshopper_Mormon_Cricket

"Environmental Documents" opens a page with state-specific and site-specific Environmental Assessments.  This provides more info about areas in each state that have been treated.

In general, areas that show in red on aerial surveys will be treated in the following year. 

From:  https://www.aphis.usda.gov/plant_health/plant_pest_info/grasshopper/downloads/hazard.pdf

Annual grasshopper density surveys:  https://www.ars.usda.gov/plains-area/sidney-mt/northern-plains-agricultural-research-laboratory/pest-management-research/pmru-docs/grasshoppers-their-biology-identification-and-management/outbreak-and-survey-info/outbreak-and-survey-info/

APHIS has a large number of pest species with control programs: https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/planthealth/plant-pest-and-disease-programs/ea

"Trying to define the undefinable": are taxonomists too focused on species?

A recent article in the New Yorker includes a good overview of why identifying species can be problematic:  

"You Name It: Carl Linnaeus and the effort to label all of life" by Kathryn Schulz, August 21, 2023 

Extended quote from article:

"What Linnaeus sought to do was organize nature according to its fundamental, intrinsic divisions--to carve it at the joints, in Plato's famous formulation.  But what he actually did, for the most part, was impose artificial categories on the natural world for the convenience of scientists.

This is not a retroactive assessment; Linnaeus himself knew full well the limitations of his classification method.  To achieve a system completely in accordance with nature was, he wrote, "the first and last wish of botanists."  But the more closely you looked at her bounty the more difficult that prospect became--so, in the meantime, "artificial systems are absolutely necessary."

In philosophy, this tension between intrinsic and imposed categories takes the form of a debate between nominalism and realism.  Realists believe that nature is full of real and discrete categories, from 'amphibian" to "zinc," and that the job of the scientist is to discern them accurately.  Nominalists believe that nature lacks clearly defined categories, and that we simply impose those distinctions upon it--creating, as it were, the illusion of joints where none really exist.  

This is not just the position of post-truth relativists.  "I look at the term 'species' as one arbitrarily given, for the sake of convenience, to a set of individuals closely resembling each other": that is Charles Darwin, in the second  chapter of "On the Origin of Species."  That book, of course, trumpeted to the world a very large problem with the entire notion of a species.  According to evolutionary theory, species are constantly changing--emerging, diverging, going extinct.

The very concept of a species is in radical flux, too, with more than twenty competing definitions in circulation.  Choosing a definition is not just a matter of what goes in the dictionary under "species"; which one you use will determine how you divide up nature, such that a group of creatures that would be regarded as a species by one standard might not merit the label by another.  

All this confusion comes, as Darwin wrote, "from trying to define the undefinable."  Yet committed realists continue to promulgate more and more definitions, in the belief that one of them will map perfectly onto some intrinsic and stable feature of nature.  Darwin called that idea "laughable," a word that captures the impossibility but not the gravity of arbitrarily imposing categories on living beings.

Xeriscaping or Zero-scaping?

 Xeriscaping is a low-water user landscaping practice in the desert Southwest.  Typically gravel or rock is used as the major groundcover, with desert-adapted plants interspersed.  Herbicides are generally used to control unsightly weeds in the gravel areas. 

Zero-scaping is when landowners skip all of the landscaping and just use herbicides to maintain dirt lots.  Unsurprisingly, the result is often phenomenally ugly.  However, this technique is extremely popular.  Why?

Herbicide-maintained zero-scaping.  The property is listed on one of the popular home-rental websites, so it has to look "presentable"!

Property line contrast.  The owner on the right has elected to let their grass grow tall, creating habitat for wildflowers and pollinators.  They usually mow it once or twice a year.

Close-up of herbicide area.  Not what I would call "presentable".

Another property owner trying to make their yard look nice.  The lush growth on the right shows what they are fighting against.

Some zero-scaping is counter-productive.  Here coir logs were used to try to control erosion.  The slope may even have been seeded.  But the over-zealous (or under-caring) landscaping company tasked with controlling weeds on the property has been very thorough in killing everything.  The result is continuing erosion into the waterway.

 

Are Pollinators Necessary for Food Production?

Pollinator enthusiasts claim that "1 in 3 bites of food are dependent on pollinators", but the reality is that many crops have been bred to self-pollinate.  For example, soybeans produce bean-like flowers, and many wild beans do require insect pollinators, but soybean flowers never open; they self-pollinate.  

In the wild, 70-90% of flowering plant species (angiosperms) do require an animal (usually an insect, bird, or mammal) to move pollen from one flower to another. Source. Only a few species have evolved to become self-reliant or to rely on wind.  But in human agriculture, we've selected for species that "breed true", which often means selecting for self-pollination. 

Many flowering agricultural crops would appear to need pollinators, but don't.  Or at most the pollination is optional: it doesn't hurt for insects to visit the flowers, and sometimes they help to fertilize and hence set more fruit, but they aren't strictly needed.  Although about three-quarters of crops benefit in some way from animal pollination, only about 10 % depend fully on pollinators to produce the seeds or fruits we consume, and they collectively account for only 2 % of global agricultural production. Source.

I created this table to show the AZ crops that require pollinators.

Data from Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/pollinator-dependence

More information: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crop_plants_pollinated_by_bees

Biodiversity in the United States

Summary

NatureServe's Map of Biodiversity Importance (MoBI) is actually 4 main maps and 53 supporting maps.

The four maps showcase different aspects of biodiversity in the United States using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. The maps are all based on data from NatureServe, which aims to assess the status and distribution of biodiversity across the United States. Each map uses a different metric to measure biodiversity and provides valuable insights into different facets of the complex and multifaceted concept of biodiversity. These maps can be used to inform conservation efforts and guide land use decisions to protect and preserve biodiversity in different regions of the United States. However, it is important to note that each map provides a limited view of biodiversity, and a comprehensive understanding of biodiversity requires consideration of multiple factors and metrics.

For example, it is difficult to determine which map shows the highest biodiversity in Arizona because each map uses a different definition of biodiversity. Map #1 shows the richness of imperiled species in the United States, but does not provide a total biodiversity count. The highest value in Arizona for this map is 11. Map #2 shows the summed range-size rarity of imperiled species in the United States, which measures the presence of imperiled species with small ranges, but does not necessarily capture total biodiversity. Maps #3 and #4 focus on areas of under-protected biodiversity importance of imperiled species and may not be as useful in determining total biodiversity.  It would be helpful to have a map that shows the total biodiversity of an ecoregion, which is not captured by any of these maps.

More resources

MoBI NatureServe Webpage

 Story map 

YouTube The Map of Biodiversity Importance | Dr. Healy Hamilton's Presentation at 2020 Esri UC

Detailed notes on each map

Map #1: Richness of Imperiled Species in the United States

1) Richness of Imperiled Species in the United States: link

a. High values identify areas where more imperiled species are most likely to occur.

b. Richness values are simply a tally of the number of species with habitat overlapping a cell.

c. Values range from 0 to 31, but the color ramp maxes out at 11.  

a. Highest value in AZ is 11.

b. Tenneessee has highest value upstream of Chattanooga and Knoxville along the Clinch river in the Cumberland river valley.

d. This is the prettiest map and easiest to interpret.

e. Most of the Sonoran desert has 0 imperiled species?  What about Pygmy owls?Sandhills east of Carlsbad only have 1 imperiled species (lesser prairie chicken).  What about lizards?  What about rare plants?

Map #2: Summed Range-size Rarity of Imperiled Species in the United States

2) Summed Range-size Rarity of Imperiled Species in the United States:  link

a. High values identify areas where species with very small ranges (and thus fewer places where they can be conserved) are likely to occur; the presence of multiple imperiled species contributes to higher scores.

b. Range-size rarity for each species is the inverse of the total area mapped as habitat. Summed range-size rarity is the sum of the range-size rarity values for all species with habitat that overlaps a cell.

c. The range for RSR values in cells containing species habitat is 0.0000002784 to 1.44584. A single species can have a value as high as 1.020335, which means just one 990-m cell contains all habitat for that species.  The RSR score for a species with habitat in two 990-m cells is 0.510167. 

d. This map is probably most important for conservation, and because its harder to interpret maybe is easier to use…less questions!

 Map #3: Protection-weighted Range-size Rarity of Imperiled Species in the United States

3) Protection-weighted Range-size Rarity of Imperiled Species in the United States: Link

a. High values identify areas where more unprotected, restricted-range species are likely to occur.  

b. Weighted based on how much of range is in protected areas.

c.  Each species was assigned a PWRSR score equal to the product of range-size rarity and the percent of habitat that is unprotected. The PWRSR raster sums these scores for all species with habitat that overlaps a cell.

d. Note:  Data based on USGS "GAP" analysis.  "Protected areas" include Wilderness and National Monument (GAP 1 and 2), but not Federal lands open to extraction like National Forests and BLM (GAP 3). 

Map #4: Areas of Unprotected Biodiversity Importance of Imperiled Species in the United States 

4)  Areas of Unprotected Biodiversity Importance of Imperiled Species in the United States: Link

a. Values of “1” identify areas where under-protected and range-restricted species are most likely to occur, including areas where the presence of multiple imperiled species contributes to higher scores

b. This is the same as #3 above, but with a cutoff value to make the map black and white.

c. AUBIs (Areas of unprotected biodiversity importance)

AI Developments... and Predictions

 I've been watching the AI developments... and the bloggers writing about the AI "foom".

• Scott Alexander on the feeling of being on the verge of AI Apocalypse.
• Scott Alexander on the new Janus-faced AI simulators, a weird new breed of alien intelligence we didn't expect.
• Erik Hoel on why we shouldn't be cavalier about the potential impact of super-intelligent AI.  (Item 4 of 9 on the page).

But in my opinion, the new AI chatbots may replace Google's current search, but they will stop far short of replacing anything but the most mundane human jobs. 

Its so hilarious that people are worried about artificial intelligence when we haven't even made a robot that can flip hamburgers yet!  Wake up and smell the grease:  the real world is complicated and messy.  We can't even replace the jobs that everyone, even the people currently working them, want replaced.  I don't think we're going to be replacing professionals anytime soon.

Just look at driverless cars.  Driving is a great example of something you'd think computers would be good at.... if you'd never driven a car in the real world!  Computers are great at driving cars in video games, but the real world is messy.  That's the Real World problem.

The second problem is even bigger: the messiness of the human social world!   Even if driverless cars were better than human drivers, that's not good enough.  We expect computers to be perfect.  If a company sells me a car and I wreck it, I'm responsible.  But if the company sells me a driverless car that crashes, the company is responsible.    

For every task that matters we want a human to be responsible.  Even if they solve the Real World problem with bigger and better AIs, the Responsibility problem will always prevent human replacement.  Imagine if my boss could replace me with a computer: he would then be 100% liable for any mistakes the computer made!  Is that the kind of liability any Pointy Haired Boss wants??  As long as he has real humans working for him, there's always someone to share the responsibility.  

Example: imagine something that's even simpler than driving a car: flying a passenger airplane!  I'm sure autopilot could fly an airplane as well as a human.  But would anyone want to fly on an airplane with no human pilot?  We'll always have the human pilots, even if the autopilot does more and more of the routine work.

Humans are social creatures.  The humans who think AI will rule the world must be living inside a computer world.  Its interesting that, as more and more of our world is computerized, we hear more and more from the people living inside the computer world.  But its not the real world!

In These Cheatgrass-Infested Hills

Matthew Miller, The Nature Conservancy writer/editor, has written a beautiful article about coming to grips with beautiful yet non-native landscapes.

In my opinion, there are too many conservationists lost in a dream of pure "native" nature, unable to see the flawed-but-still-beautiful world around them.  I empathize with his struggle to learn to love degraded places, even the hard-to-love places that are infested with cheatgrass.  

Trying to widen our circle of appreciation to include even nasty invasives helps us appreciate the natural in the unnatural: the native pollinators that use invasive wildflowers, the native birds that nest in invasive trees. 

To quote Princess Mononoke, our task now is "to see with eyes unclouded by hate."

Climate Prediction Skill

The US Climate Prediction Center issues forecasts beyond the normal National Weather Service's 10-14 day window.  They provide weekly and monthly forecasts out to 3 months.  Given the timeframe and the fact that their forecasts cover the entire contintental US, its not surprising that the forecasts are often wrong.  But how wrong?  And is their skill improving over time?

I analyzed their 3 month temperature and precipitation forecast skill using data provided on their "Gridded Seasonal Verifications" webpage.  

Note that skill is measured on a scale from -50 to 100, where -50 would be a forecast that was exactly wrong in every area, 0 would be a prediction that did no better than chance, and 100 is a prediction that was exactly right in every area.  

They provide data starting in 1995.  Since that time in the mid 1990's, linear trendlines show that their forecast skill has slightly improved for both Temperature and Precipitation.  Precipitation skill started out lower, but has almost doubled (from 10 to 20) while Temperature skill started higher but has not increased as much (from 22 to 28).

However, the last 10 years have not been as successful:

Since 2012, neither Precipitation nor Temperature skill have increased.  In fact, mean temperature forecast skill has decreased markedly since 2018.  Before that, Temperature skill had been doing quite well in the period 2014-2018.  It is not clear what changed in 2018.  A similar transition may be happening with Precipitation, where the period 2019-2022 saw consistently good predictions, but since the beginning of 2023 the forecast skill has fallen off a cliff.

With increased use of machine learning, it seems likely that long-term weather forecast skill should increase.  However, complex chaotic weather patterns are most impactful to climate predictions in the 1-3 month time frame, so this area of weather/climate prediction may continue to have lower than hoped for success.  

Rare Plants and High Quality Ecosystems Mapped in Washington State

 The new HDMS mapper from WNHP shows rare plants as well as Ecological Integrity Assessments (EIAs) for a wide range of ecosystems.

For example, here are the rare plant areas East of Renton:

And here are the natural ecosystems with an "A" rating:

Science & Technology - 2022 Year in Review

AI

 2022 was the big year for Artificial Intelligence, the year when AI became a household word.  The image generators were first, like Dall-E, but by the end of the year the latest GPT release (Chat-GPT) had taken over.  

Overview of some of the big AI releases:  link

Space

Big milestones in space included the successful first images from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), showing individual stars inside galaxies at the very beginning of time.  Link to images from JWST.

The DART asteroid-impact missions was a success!  Video reviews here and here.  

And sadly, the Planetary Society's crowd-funded solar sail, Lightsail 2, crashed back into the Earth's atmosphere after 3 years sailing on sunlight.  Link.

Environment

While its hard to pick the top environmental story, the fact that Earth warmed at an all-time record pace created climate disruptions everywhere.  

On the positive side, researchers have created a form of ultra-white paint that can reflect more energy than is absorbs.  Buildings coated with this paint would have a natural cooling ability that could reduce ambient temperatures and reduce energy required for AC.  I'm very hopeful that this can become cost effective and widely used in desert cities.  Link.