Information on Radioactive Particles from Japan

source: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2011/03/latest-on-japanese-radiation.html

Wavelet Coherence Analysis!

I've started using a cool Matlab program that generates a 4-dimensional power spectra for any time series. A normal power spectra is averaged over an entire dataset, but this technique, called Wavelet Coherence Analysis using a sliding "window" to examine power spectra continuously over the entire series. Of course, for longer and longer wavelengths, the sliding window necessarily becomes larger and larger, until wavelengths can no longer be measured on the data. The dark black hemicurve on this diagram shows that limit, and the data greyed out beyond that line is edge-affected power spectra.

The data I chose for this analysis were the maximum daily temperatures for Chapel Hill, North Carolina, in 2010. There are 365 days along the X axis, and various wavelengths ranging from 4 to 64 days along the Y axis. Colors indicate "power" at a given wavelength, for a given time of the year. Significant areas within the hemicurve are circled with a black line.

This analysis shows that there were some 6-day cycles in springtime (near DOY 150) that were statistically significant. Beyond that, not much jumps out: the signal does now have high periodicity. Now I'm looking for better-behaving data.

Sunspots, Space Weather, and the Earth

Prikryl et al 2009: Solar magnetic sector boundary passage (SBP) and vorticity area index (VAI), by weather reconstruction ERA-40 dataset back to 1963-2002, confirmed the "Wilcox effect". The interplanetary magnetic field and associated "space weather" directly effect Earth's weather.

News from Dr. Leif Svalgaard at Stanford:

Wolf was right...we can use magnetic field strength to calibrate solar irradiance. The correlation between solar far-UV radiation and geomagnetic force on the Earth's surface is extremely good;

now we have an objective calibration for sunspot number.
The conclusion? Leif 2007 finds no long-term trend in solar irradience from at least 1600. through the present.

Risk Assessment

Nuclear and chemical technologies (except for medicines) have been stigmatized by being perceived as entailing unnaturally great risks.

R. Gregory, J. Flynn, and P. Slovic, ‘‘Technological Stigma,’’ American Scientist 83, 220–223 (1995).

The social problem is compounded by the fact that we tend to manage our risks within an adversarial legal system that pits expert against expert, contradicting each other’s risk assessments and further destroying the public trust. The young science of risk assessment is too fragile, too indirect, to prevail in such a hostile atmosphere. Scientic analysis of risks cannot allay
our fears of low-probability catastrophes or delayed cancers unless we trust the system. In the absence of trust, science (and risk assessment) can only feed public concerns, by uncovering more bad news. A single study demonstrating an association between exposure to chemicals or radiation and some adverse health effect cannot easily be offset by numerous studies failing to and such an association.

CUDOS in Science versus Post-Normal Science

(C)ommunalism – the common ownership of scientific discoveries, according to which scientists give up intellectual property rights in exchange for recognition and esteem;
(U)niversalism – according to which claims to truth are evaluated in terms of universal or value-free criteria;
(D)isinterestedness – according to which scientists are rewarded for acting in ways that appear to be selfless;
(O)rganized (S)kepticism – all ideas must be tested and are subject to structured community scrutiny.
+
If these CUDOS are followed, science should be "certain and value-free."
from Eva Kunseler, Towards a new paradigm of Science in scientific policy advising


Thanks to "buythetruth" blog for excellent selections from Kunseler
http://buythetruth.wordpress.com/2009/10/31/climate-change-and-the-death-of-science/

Steroid Biosynthesis from Cholesterol

Psychometric Factor Analysis of Risk Perception: Dread Risk and Unknown Risk

Risks are perceived based on their qualities.

Micromorts can be used as an "objective" statistical approximation of risk.

"Substance X causes cancer in animals...."

Consider two statements, S1 and S2: S1: ‘‘Would you agree or disagree that the way an animal reacts to a chemical is a reliable predictor of how a human would react to it?’’

The second statement, S2, is a little more specific: ‘‘If a scientific study produces evidence that a chemical causes cancer in animals, then we can be reasonably sure that the chemical will cause cancer in humans.’’

How did you respond? How would a scientist respond?

from P. Slovic, ‘‘Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield,’’ in Environment, Ethics, and Behavior, M. H. Bazerman, D. M. Messick, A. E. Tenbrunsel, and K. A. Wade-Benzoni (eds.) (San Francisco, New Lexington, 1997), pp. 277–313.

Global CO2 plumes

Ever wonder where our oxygen comes from in the winter? When vegetation dies back in the Northern Hemisphere, we have to subsist on old air until the summer. In this image, you can see the plume of carbon dioxide downwind of large human population centers.

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003500/a003562/index.html

Agroforestry: the "Evergreen Revolution"

Dr. Dennis Garrity spoke today at SENR about how agroforestry is transforming entire landscapes in Africa. Dr. Garrity detailed a number of ways farmers are growing more crops by cultivating trees in their field. The details differ, but usually involve a leguminous tree that can provide both fertilizer for the field and fodder for livestock. One such tree, Acacia (Faidherbia), has the amazing added benefit of loosing its leaves during the wet season when farmers grow crops. This is basically the perfect tree, providing timed inputs of fertilizer, light, and forage at just the times the crops, farmer, and livestock need them.

According to Dr. Garrity, Faidherbia does not grow in the wild and is dependent on human cultivation. But until 10 years ago, no one knew how to propagate the tree: farmers tended them when they found them, but attempts to plant seeds or take cuttings had failed. Once researchers from the World Agroforestry Centre developed a cheap and easy way to propagate Faidherbia, its use has been rapidly adopted, especially in the Sahel region of Africa, where millions of hectares have been transformed.

Many of the questions from the audience focussed on possible problems and objections to this agronomic technique. What if pests wiped out the tree, or used the tree as refuges? If it was so good, why hadn't farmers adopted it before? What would happen when commercial farms replaced small holders? Some of these questions had initially occurred to me as well, but after reflection, the question I was most interested to ask would have focussed on what this example of agroforestry innovation could teach us to look for in the future. How can we learn from this example to look for other species in other parts of the world that might become essential components of new agricultural systems that can increase diversity, resilience, and production for the 21st century?

The real insight of this talk is that productivity is not set in stone: humans can and should manage their environments to improve them over and above what is "natural".

This presentation has in-depth information on the spread of agroforestry in Niger.

This is a great agroforestry organization: http://www.plant-trees.org/about.htm