Desert People Without Water

I recently visited the ruins at Honanki and Palatki.  These are prehistoric settlements built into the red rock cliffs near Sedona, AZ.  Today, the people who built these dwellings are called "Sinagua", which comes from Spanish for "without water".  But everyone needs water, right?  I wondered where these people got drinking water.

I looked for springs around Honanki and Palatki and didn't find any.  That's weird!

Zoom in to see locations of Honanki (H) and Palatki (P) in relation to USGS-mapped springs (blue) and NAU-mapped springs (green).

Although springs have dried up in recent times, the USGS spring data was mapped in the late 1800s / early 1900s when many more springs were flowing.  It looks like the geology of the Sedona Red Rock cliffs just don't produce springs.  So even if the location of springs was different 800 years ago, it would be surprising if there were springs in the cliffs where these people lived.

The closest mapped spring (blue dot = unconfirmed water source) is 1.5 and 2.7 miles away, respectively, but there is no evidence of water in the aerial imagery.  The next closest (green dot = confirmed water source) is 4.7 and 3 miles away, respectively.   Neither Palatki nor Honanki is even built in one of the larger drainages that might flow more often/longer; the drainages that feed their valleys are quite short.  

I don't think these settlements had access to aboveground water throughout the year unless they dug wells or used cisterns to store water.

These and other prehistoric communities in the desert Southwest often built cliff dwellings high above canyon floors, far from surface water sources.  Archaeologists believe these people collected runoff during rainstorms using check dams and seeps, and stored water in cisterns or ceramic containers for later use.

Across the prehistoric Southwest, populations used ingenious methods to exploit scarce water:

• Rock overhangs and cisterns captured and stored rainwater.
• Seasonal mobility allowed families to occupy dry sites part of the year.
• Terraced fields, check dams, and soil-retention walls conserved moisture for crops.
• Small permanent settlements clustered near ephemeral water sources, such as seeps and seasonal pools.

In conclusion, while many large settlements in the prehistoric Southwest were built near springs or rivers, groups like the Anasazi, Sinagua, and others developed highly effective ways to survive in water-scarce environments through dry-land agriculture, runoff collection, and strategic mobility.

Atmospheric Streams Subsidize Valley Forests

I invented a new term to describe small-scale flows of water in the atmosphere.  Just as atmospheric rivers are large flows that transport tropical moisture thousands of miles to the mid-Latitudes, atmospheric streams share the moisture of the mountains with the valleys.

Example of an atmospheric river: Hurricane Priscilla projected track from October 7, 2025.  The remains of this storm brought copious moisture to the desert Southwest.

I first starting thinking about this when I noticed that the new weather station in the Watson Woods Riparian Preserve was often colder in the mornings than weather stations on the surrounding hills.  

Note the 40 degree temperature swing from cool (30's!) temperatures at night, to warm (80's) temperature during the day.

This is caused by katabatic winds from the mountains:

"On clear nights with calm winds, the ground cools rapidly. Air in contact with the colder ground cools by conducting heat to the ground. When this cooling process occurs along mountain slopes, the cooling air becomes colder and denser than the air away from the slopes, which causes the cold air to sink downslope. The dense cold air flows downslope in streams (called katabatic winds) following the steepest slopes. When the cold air flows into a relatively flat area (a mountain or river valley, for example), the streams of cold air slow down. This causes the valley to fill with cold air, much like streams filling a lake. "(MountWashington.org)

Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, a good example of cold air drainage.

Atmospheric streams are distinct from the riparian drainages they follow, because air flows differently than water:

"Air flows in much larger volumes relative to the topographic surface. Water, even in hillside gullies, flows in volumes that are small relative to the scale of the landscape, and hence topography is the major control on the flow. Air masses are generally much larger relative to the landscape. This can lead to rather different effects. When a shallow cold air flow is moving slowly or is strongly stratified, it can become trapped by topographic barriers that would not trap water. Conversely, when the cold air flow is rapid or has lower stratification, it can flow over barriers, rather than go around them and so minimize friction.” (Research Meteorology)

Cold air flows are an important part of riparian ecology.  A study at the Coweeta Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site found that cold air drainage subsidizes valley ecosystem productivity.  The study observed lower temperature air from the mountains cooling riparian forests, which lowered their carbon loss due to plant respiration.  The cool air must be a welcome respite for plants during the heat of summer.

Image from Coweeta LTER site in the South Carolina Appalachian mountains.

Cool mountain air can also be moister than valley air, especially in arid regions like Arizona.  Riparian streams carry water from mountains to valleys, while invisible atmospheric streams carry water in the form of humidity.  The extra boost in humidity only becomes visible (as fog) when the temperature drops below the dew point. The studies I looked at did not measure humidity, but it makes sense that higher elevation forests would have moister air than the hotter valleys.  When they share their air, they share their water.

Atmospheric streams are an important, but often overlooked, part of the global water cycle that carries moisture from the land to the ocean.  The recycling and transport of water from one part of the land to another part is sometimes called the "small water cycle".  We still have much to learn about the way our planet works!

El autobus magico: viaja por el agua

Tortoise Population Zone Trends

Continuing my analysis of iNat tortoise and reptile data, I looked at whether the observed changes in proportion of reptile species encountered was different in urban and urbanizing zones.  I hypothesized that the continuing expansion of large cities in tortoise habitat could be contributing to their decline.

Methods

I downloaded iNat data for AZ reptile species and mapped the points in GIS. I only looked at full species instead of including named subspecies as I had in my previous analysis. Based on that previous analysis, it seemed possible that changes in subspecies identification could be accounting for some of the observed changes and I wanted to remove that potential source of bias.

I then subjectively defined polygons around the large urban zones of Phoenix and Tucson and used the Identify tool to add Phoenix and Tucson labels to all points within those areas.  Note that although the study area includes other towns in Arizona (such as Prescott and Flagstaff) I did not choose to define those areas as "urban". 

Phoenix urban zone.  220 total tortoise observations.

Tucson urban zone:  795 observations.

I also considered whether geopoint accuracy would impact the results, so I conducted the following analysis including and excluding points with no or low (greater than 1000m) accuracy.  However, because I did not see a difference I will simply present results for all data points (i.e. no geopoint accuracy exclusion).

Results: Urban Zones

The majority of tortoise observations are from urban zones, especially Tucson.

It is not possible to determine if more tortoises live around Phoenix and Tucson compared to remote areas; iNat data collection is opportunistic, so places where people live are more heavily sampled than remote areas.  This result is an important caveat to my previous results: iNat observation trends are most representative of urban zones and any observed changes do not necessarily represent changes in all areas of Arizona.

The proportion of tortoise observations has been increasing in urban zones, especially Tucson. From 2013-2025, although there is some noise early on (e.g. 2014) due to low observation counts, the general trend is apparent that Tucson increased from ~45% to ~55% of total observations, while areas outside metro zones decreased from ~40% to ~20%.

This could contradict my hypothesis (that tortoises are declining in areas of urban development), or it could be due to increased observers in urban zones.   

Reptile observations show the same overall trend of increasing observations in urban zones. The proportion of iNat reptile observations for Phoenix increased from 10% to 20%, Tucson increased from 30% to 40%, and non-urban areas decreased from 60% to 45%.

Reptile Observation Trends

I wondered whether the amount of urban versus non-urban observations could explain the changes I observed in reptile species observations.

Updated Reptile Observation Trends

The 26 species of reptiles with more than 1000 observations

There were 26 species of reptiles with more than 1000 observations in the study area.  They ranged from species with 100% urban observations (San Esteban Island Iguana, introduced) to species with 0% urban observations (Plateau Fence lizard).  The colored cells show population change from a 2018 baseline.  Look for areas of red-green or green-red, because those indicate consistent trends from 2013-2025.  Red for both indicate 2018 was a high point.  Green for both indicate 2018 was a low point.  

I then plotted % change against proportion of non-urban observations to look for trends and outliers.

First graph: The point at 100% non-urban and 50% change is Plateau Fence lizard, which is very common in Prescott and Flagstaff, maybe that area should be an urban zone.  The point above 200% change is sidewinder, maybe someone was studying them back in the day?

2nd graph.  The point at 0% nonurban and 180% change is the iguana, introduced in Tucson.

Conclusion

Urban areas do not have a consistent negative or positive impact on reptile observation trends. It would be interesting to look at observation trends of individual species in each zone, but most species do not have enough observations for a meaningful statistical analysis.

At this point I can conclude that the large and increasing share of iNat observations from urban areas definitely affects the analysis of reptile observation trends, but I have not been able to identify a consistent bias that this would introduce into my overall analysis.

Reptile Trends in Arizona

Introduction

In my previous posts, I showed that the relative proportion of iNaturalist observations was decreasing for Sonoran Desert tortoises. 

In my second post I investigated whether there were biases affecting the total number of observations, and while I found some, they did not change the results of the first post.  However, in that post I only compared total observations to large taxa that include hundreds of species, like birds, insects, and reptiles.  The question remains of the variability of other individual species besides tortoises.  Is the observed trend in tortoise observations normal or extreme?  

Looking at other individual species is problematic, because while I could assume that the actual populations of large groups of taxa would be relatively consistent over time, that assumption does not hold for individual species.  In other words, it is harder to investigate potential observer biases when looking at individual species because their populations may actually be increasing or decreasing.

Nonetheless, looking at other species can shed some light on the observed trends in tortoise observations.  I looked at other reptiles with the idea that they might have similar trends, and/or similar causes explaining their trends.  

Reptile Observation Trends

I downloaded all Research Grade observations of reptiles within the tortoise study area and decided to focus on species with more than 1,000 observations over the 2013-2024 study period.  There were 26 species that fit this requirement.  

iNat page showing representative reptile species included in this analysis.  

I then conducted a similar analysis to the last blog post.  To look at the changing proportion of observations for each species over time, I divided the number of observations for each species each year by the total number of reptile and total number of non-plant observations for that year.  To compare species to one another, I normalized all species proportions to a base year, either 2013 (to look at % change since 2013) or 2018 (to look at % change since 2018).  

Changes 2013-2024

Excel can only graph 10 measures at a time (due to a limit on the number of colors?), so there are 3 graphs presented below for % change of various reptile species compared to total non-plant observations.  % change compared to other reptiles is not shown, but is summarized in the table below.

Top 10 lizards by total observations:

Plateau fence lizard had large initial increase that continued.

Western side blotched lizard had large increase in 2013 (year 11)

Common side blotched lizard has had increases, but ended very near where it began

Greater earless lizard decreased to 50% by year 5 and then held steady.

Middle 10 reptile species . Sonoran desert tortoise points are highlighted:

Mediterranean house gecko had large increase in first few years, but has decreased again since year 6 (2018)

Sonoran gopher snake has been up and down 50% at different times

All of the other species have decreased.

Bottom few reptile species. Note different Y axis:

Table of top 25 most observed reptile species in study area, listed from most to least observed:

Average change when normalized to total observations in less than 4%, but standard deviation is 50%.

Largest increase was Plateau Fence Lizard 240% change as a % of total observations, and 333% change as a percent of reptiles. Other species with large increases were red-eared slider and western side-blotched lizard.

Largest decrease was Gila Monster, only observed 38% as much in 2024 compared to 2013 total observations, or 52% as much compared to total reptile observations.  Other species with large decreases were Gopher snakes, western banded gecko, and Sonoran desert tortoise.  

The large variability in % change means that the standard deviation is also quite large.  Therefore, few if any of these changes would be statistically significant.   For example, even the large decrease in proportion of gila monster observations is not more than 2 standard deviations from the mean.

It is interesting to note that these results are largely consistent when species are compared against reptiles or all non-plant taxa.  Therefore this analysis does not help explain the apparent decrease of total reptiles compared to all non-plant taxa since 2013 that I noted in my previous blog post.

Changes 2018-2024

To show all species on one graph, I used Tableau to visualize the % change each species.  In this case I am comparing each species to total reptile species, but again I present comparison data for both total reptile and total non-plant observation in the table below.

Summary table:

Average change when normalized to total observations in less than 10%, and less than 1% when compared to just reptiles. but standard deviation is still more than 30%.

Largest increase was western side-blotched lizard with more than 200% change compared to either total non-plant or total reptile observations.   Other species with large increases were long-nosed snake with more than 150% change.

Largest decrease was still Gila Monster, which continued to decline since 2018.  It was only observed 50% as much in 2024 compared to 2018 when compared to total non-plant or total reptile observations.  Other species with large decreases were northern black-tailed rattlesnakes, sonoran desert tortoises, meditgerranean house geckos, and clark's spiny lizard.

Identifications to species versus subspecies can be a source of bias

The large increase in western side blotched lizard, a subspecies of common side blotched  lizard that did not show a large increase, could be due to Identifications favoring the subspecies.  Same could be true for Sonoran Gopher snake, a subspecies of gopher snake that showed a decrease.  The increase/decrease between the subspecies and species could be due to a cultural shift as identifiers increasingly favor the use of the subspecies.   Note that Northern black-tailed rattlesnake is also a subspecies (of Western black tailed rattlesnake), but almost all of the observations in AZ are consistently identified to the subspecies, so the large decrease in observations of this subspecies is probably not due to identifier bias.

Conclusions

While tortoise was not statistically different from all other reptiles, its decline is among the largest, grouped with other species of conservation concern.

For changes across reptiles, there are several possible hypotheses for the observed changes.  Some species are probably actually increasing or decreasing.  Species increasing in places people live would be observed more often.  But:  even if that is generally true, it is not consistently true.  Otherwise most common species would consistently increase and least common would consistently decrease.

I rejected my hypothesis that common reptiles are observed more and less common are now observed less frequently.  However, there does seem to be more variability in less observed species.  This is why I set the lower limit for this analysis at 1,000 total observations.  Even 1,000 isn’t very many, just 100-200 observations/year.  These small sample sizes could explain some of the variability.

Sonoran Desert Tortoise - Follow Up

In my previous post "Sonoran Desert Tortoise Population Status", I argued that a decline in the ratio of tortoise observations to total iNaturalist observations indicated a possible decline in the actual population of tortoises.  

However, that conclusion rests on the assumption that opportunistic "citizen science" observers have not changed their preferences in photographing other animals.  This could happen if people became less interested in tortoises, or if they became more interested in other taxa.  

Part 1: Trends in Other Taxa

I analyzed various other well-represented taxa in the iNat data to look for possible trends in observer preferences.  Specifically, I looked at all Research Grade (RG) iNat observations of amphibians, reptiles, insects, birds, and plants in the study area: 

Data table with total RG amphibian, reptile, insect, bird, and plant observations in the study area each year.

These are large taxa made up of many species and I expected that the ratio of observations would remain relatively consistent. 

Count of observations by taxa 2013-2024

Observations of all taxa have increased over the last 10 years, but some appear to have increased more than others. I divided the count of each taxa's observations by total observations to investigate proportional changes in the ratio of various taxa:

Ratio of various taxa to total observations 2013-2024

The ratio of various taxa has changed over time.  Specifically, the ratio of plant observations to total observations doubled in 2017.  I don't think this could be due to an actual increase in the number of plants in AZ.  

Instead, I think this must be an indication of a changed bias toward plants, perhaps due to specific iNat users who focus on plants, or a general trend toward more plant-focused observers on iNat.  Plants, because they don't run away, are arguably the easiest organisms to photograph; it could be that as iNat has grown there are now more casual users biased toward photographing easier to observe organisms.  

Regardless of why iNat users are observing proportionally more plants, this appears to be a source of bias that should be corrected in my analysis.    

To correct for the large increase in plant observations, I compared various taxa to total non-plant observations: 

Ratio of various taxa to total non-plant ("total2") observations 2013-2024

This shows a fairly consistent observation ratios for the major animal taxa over the last 10 years.  While there is some year to year variability, there are no long term trends, except reptiles.  Reptiles in general are photographed 71% as often in 2024 compared to 2013. Most of this drop occurred from 2015-2017, with no major changes since then.  It is not clear why reptiles as a group declined in representation.  There are other reptile species of conservation concern besides tortoises and it is possible that reptiles actually are declining, or there could be other sources of observer bias in the data, similar to the trend in plant observations above.

Except for reptiles, all taxa ratios stayed within approximately +/- 15%:

Table: percent change in ratios of various taxa since 2013 and 2017.

Part 2: Another Look at the Tortoise Trend

The analysis in Part 1 led to a refinement in the total observation count used to create ratios, and helped set a baseline for expected change in ratios over the last 10 years.  I used this information to reassess the observed decline in ratio of tortoise observations.  

Tortoise observations were compared to various taxa and to total non-plant observations:

Percent change in the ratio of tortoises to various taxa and to total non-plant ("total2") observations 2013-2024

The ratio of tortoise observations has decreased since 2013 for all 4 animal taxa investigated, and for total non-plant observations.  The decline is remarkably consistent for amphibians, birds, and total non-plant observations ("total2"), and fairly consistent for insects.  The ratio of tortoise to reptile observations tends to fluctuate over time, while maintaining the same overall negative trend.

While most animal taxa ratios show less than 15% change from baseline (Part 1), tortoises are observed 66-84% (mean 72%) in 2024 compared to 2017, and 35-57% (mean 43%) in 2024 compared to 2013:

Table: percent change of tortoise observations to various taxa and to total non-plant observations.

Conclusions

Tortoises show large declines compared to various representative animal taxa and compared to all non-plant observations.  This is the same result I found in my original blog post when I compared tortoises to all observations.  

The result was not affected by removing a potential source of user bias, showing that the original result is robust to some observational biases.  Of course, there will always be more sources of bias that could be analyzed and corrected for.  However, the fact that correcting for one source of bias didn't change the result makes me somewhat more confident that this result is directionally correct.

Conversely, the fact that I did find a large source of observer bias makes me wonder whether there are other large biases in iNat observation trends.  Without analyzing all sources of bias (why did reptiles change in 2017?) these results must remain clouded by potential uncertainties.  

The result was also not affected by which taxa I compared tortoises with, showing that the original result is robust to choice of comparison.  Tortoises appear to be declining, whether they are compared to all observations, all animals, amphibians, reptiles, insects, or birds.  While it is possible that one or more of these taxa are affected by observational bias, the fact that they all point in the same direction makes me more confident that this result is directionally correct and reflects an actual downward population trend.

Sonoran Desert Tortoise Population Status

 Abstract

Population trend data for species under consideration for federal protection is often limited. This study evaluated Sonoran desert tortoise (Gopherus morafkai) population trends in Arizona using iNaturalist citizen science data. We analyzed 1,402 research-grade tortoise observations and normalized them against total observations in the area to account for sampling bias. While both tortoise observations and total observations increased since the early 2010s, the ratio of tortoise to total observations declined consistently from 0.12% to 0.08% between 2017-2025. This decreasing ratio suggests either shifting observer preferences or declining tortoise encounter rates, potentially indicating population decline. These results provide concerning evidence of negative population trends for this species of conservation concern and demonstrate the utility of citizen science data for monitoring species lacking formal survey programs.

Introduction

Sonoran desert tortoise (Gopherus morafkai) live in the Sonoran desert of Arizona and northern Mexico.  A closely related species in California and Nevada, the Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii), is Federally protected as a Threatened species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA).  The Sonoran desert tortoise is listed by AZ as a Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN) and was proposed for protection under the ESA but determined "Not Warranted" in 2022.  On June 4, 2025 wildlife groups filed suit in federal court challenging that determination.  

It is difficult to find current population trend data for species that may warrant listing under the ESA, so I attempted to do so using publicly available iNaturalist data.  iNaturalist is a public repository of photographic observations of species.  

Methods

I filtered iNat for Research Grade observation of Sonoran desert tortoises in AZ and found 1,402 observations. I considered limiting the analysis to only live tortoises, but eventually decided to use all research grade observations due to the difficulty filtering. Only ~3% (44 observations) were annotated as dead , and only ~1% (12 observations) were annotated as scat.  

I created an Area of Interest (AOI) bounding box around the tortoise data to search for total RG observations.  There were a total of 1.2 million RG observations in the Sonoran desert of southern AZ.

RG tortoise observations in AZ with bounding box showing AOI.  

More tortoises are observed in places where there are more people to observe them.  Because iNat data is based on opportunitistic data collection, it is liable to biases based on where people live as well as how many people use iNat.  To attempt to correct for this, trend analyses can normalize the count of tortoise observations as a ratio of total observations in the AOI.


Data

Data table of AOI with Total RG Observations, Total Observations, RG:Total Observations Ratio, RG Tortoise Observations, and RG Tortoise: RG Total observations.

Results

Total RG observations in the AZ Sonoran desert have been increasingly consistently since the early 2010s.

Count of total RG observations in the AOI per year.

Tortoise observations have increased since 2013, with some notable dips in 2020 and 2023. It is possible that these dips are due to weather-related impacts to tortoise population, but they could also be due to differences in number of observations.  

Count of tortoise observations per year.

By comparing tortoise observations to total observations, a normalized ratio can be derived. This ratio decreases over time. There is a step change decrease in 2017, which could be a real population decrease or could be due to the huge increase in popularity of iNat in 2017.  However, even if only looking at 2017 -2025, there is still a long term decrease in the ratio of tortoise observations, from around 0.12% to 0.08% of total observations. 

Ratio of tortoise observations to RG observations. 

Discussion

The decreasing ratio of tortoise observations indicates that either people are trending to preferentially observe other species more than tortoises, or that tortoises are making up a smaller percentage of the animals people encounter.  

Despite limitations of citizen science data, these results provide concerning evidence of negative population trends for this species of conservation concern and highlight the utility of iNaturalist data for monitoring species that lack formal survey programs.

An Alzheimer's Bet Based on Biology

Alzheimer's research has been accused of being hijacked by a misleading hypothesis that only survives to enrich drug companies.  The amyloid hypothesis has been extensively critiqued, including by this essay on the blog Astral Codex Ten that looked at problems with the original paper that started (by some accounts) 30 years of misguided research.  

In response to a call for counter-arguments, David Schneider-Joseph, presented a compelling argument in favor of the amyloid hypothesis.  He even went so far as to propose a bet; that a drug targeting amyloid would achieve at least a 75% slowdown in Alzheimer's in the next 12 years.

I wouldn’t take David’s proposed bet, because I’m sure some company will find a way to gerrymander clinical endpoints to get to 75% “slowdown”.  Probably with a drug that has horrible side effects and costs north of $100,000/year.  

I would bet on the following:  the leading* therapy in 12 years will not be one whose sole intended mechanism involves amyloid production or clearance, e.g. monoclonal antibodies, small molecules, or gene editing that work directly on amyloid.  

    * “Leading” means some combination of efficacious and most widely used.

This is the important sense in which the amyloid hypothesis is wrong: it may be “correct” in some narrow biochemical sense, but it is a dead end.

In a way this is an easy bet on the status quo continuing indefinitely, because the current drugs used to treat Alzheimer's do not target amyloid.  However, I’m also bullish on emerging therapies such as creatine, lithium, calcium channels, and mitochondrial therapies including far infrared, ketones, and other ways to generally affect metabolism and autophagy/mitophagy.  Some of these might be shown to improve clearance of amyloid, but the amyloid hypothesis is not necessary or very helpful in the development of these “general" therapies.  

My prediction is based on a general model of how biology works.  Simple infectious and traumatic medical conditions seem most amenable to targeted therapies, while general conditions like mental illness, cancer, and Alzheimer’s are so complicated and depend on so many general health processes that targeted therapies tend to miss the mark.  

Ideally, we would pursue both lines of treatment, but our pharma system is biased toward patentable targeted treatments to the exclusion of all else.  The “Amyloid Mafia” is shorthand for this trend in Alzheimer’s research.  

However, even given the funding disparity between amyloid research and other treatments, non-amyloid treatments are arguably already more efficacious.  As a good Bayesian, I predict this will continue, and so this seems like a safe bet to me!

Quotes from On the Border with Crook

 The past is another country, but in this book it seems like a different planet.  I hadn't been interested in Cowboys & Indians but this military travelogue is a natural history and ethnography of another world.  I've been looking for a good book that describes the endemic historical ecosystems of the Western US and found it in this story of a military officer who followed famous General Crook from one Indian War to another during the 1870's.  

Apparently this book is known as one of the Top Ten books of the Wild West, with stories of when Tucson was a Spanish town, Arizona was Apache territory, and the great plains were full of buffalo.  The writer is thoughtful and observant, and in another or later life might have been an anthropologist.  In reality, he was directly responsible for forcibly removing native peoples from their ancestral lands and the ending of their unbroken lifeways.  But he writes with respect and admiration, and this firsthand account reveals complexities of the American Indian wars that are lost in our modern moralizing view of that time period.

Perhaps it is best to let him speak for himself; these extended quotations offer a window into another world:

P 146: mixing ecology and narrative

The Tonto Basin was well supplied with deer and other wild animals, as well as with mescal, Spanish bayonet, acorn-bearing oak, walnuts, and other favorite foods of the Apaches, while the higher levels of the Mogollon and the other ranges were at one and the same time pleasant abiding-places during the heats of summer, and ramparts of protection against the sudden incursion of an enemy. I have already spoken of the wealth of flowers to be seen in these high places; I can only add that throughout our march across the Mogollon range some eleven days in time-we saw spread out before us a carpet of colors which would rival the best examples of the looms of Turkey or Persia.

Approaching the western edge of the plateau, we entered the country occupied by the Tonto Apaches, the fiercest band of this wild and apparently incorrigible family. We were riding along in a very lovely stretch of pine forest one sunny afternoon, admiring the wealth of timber which would one day be made tributary to the world's commerce, looking down upon the ever-varying colors of the wild flowers which spangled the ground for leagues (because in these forests upon the summits of all of Arizona's great mountain ranges there is never any underbrush, as is the case in countries where there is a greater amount of humidity in the atmosphere), and ever and anon exchanging expressions of pleasure and wonder at the vista spread out beneath us in the immense Basin to the left and front, bounded by the lofty ridges of the Sierra Ancha and the Matitzal; each one was talking pleasantly to his neighbor, and as it happened the road we were pursuing-to call it road where human being had never before passed— was so even and clear that we were riding five and six abreast, General Crook, Lieutenant Ross, Captain Brent, Mr. Thomas Moore, and myself a short distance in advance of the cavalry, and the pack-train whose tinkling bells sounded lazily among the trees-and were all delighted to be able to go into camp in such a romantic spot-when " whiz! whiz!" sounded the arrows of a small party of Tontos who had been watching our advance and determined to try the effects of a brisk attack, not knowing that we were merely the advance of a larger command.

P 127

All sorts of signals are made for the information of other parties of Apaches. At times, it is an inscription or pictograph incised in the smooth bark of a sycamore; at others, a tracing upon a smooth-faced rock under a ledge which will protect it from the elements; or it may be a knot tied in the tall sacaton or in the filaments of the yucca; or one or more stones placed in the crotch of a limb, or a sapling laid against another tree, or a piece of buckskin carelessly laid over a branch.  All these, placed as agreed upon, afford signals to members of their own band, and only Apaches or savages with perceptions as keen would detect their presence.

The Apache was a hard foe to subdue, not because he was full of wiles and tricks and experienced in all that pertains to the art of war, but because he had so few artificial wants and depended almost absolutely upon what his great mother-Nature stood ready to supply. Starting out upon the war-path, he wore scarcely any clothing save a pair of buckskin moccasins reaching to mid-thigh and held to the waist by a string of the same mate-rial; a piece of muslin encircling the loins and dangling down behind about to the calves of the legs, a war-hat of buckskin surmounted by hawk and eagle plumage, a rifle (the necessary ammunition in belt) or a bow, with the quiver filled with arrows reputed to be poisonous, a blanket thrown over the shoulders, a watertight wicker jug to serve as a canteen, and perhaps a small amount of "jerked" meat, or else of " pinole" or parched corn-meal.

That is all, excepting his sacred relics and " medicine,"

P 125

Unlike the Indians of the Plains, east of the Rocky Mountains, the Apache rarely become good horsemen, trusting rather to their own muscles for advancing upon or escaping from an enemy in the mountainous and desert country with which they, the Apaches, are so perfectly familiar. Horses, mules, and donkeys, when captured, were rarely held longer than the time when they were needed to be eaten; the Apache preferred the meat of these animals to that of the cow, sheep, or goat, although all the last-named were eaten. Pork and fish were objects of the deepest repugnance to both men and women; within the past twenty years-since the Apaches have been enrolled as scouts and police at the agencies-this aversion to bacon at least has been to a great extent overcome; but no Apache would touch fish until Geronimo and the men with him were incarcerated at Fort Pick-ens, Florida, when they were persuaded to eat the pompano and other delicious fishes to be found in Pensacola Bay.

P 177

Man's inhumanity to man is an awful thing. His inhumanity to God's beautiful trees is scarcely inferior to it. Trees are nearly human; they used to console man with their oracles, and I must confess my regret that the Christian dispensation has so changed the opinions of the world that the soughing of the evening wind through their branches is no longer a message of hope or a solace to sorrow.

P 158

Prescott has the distinction of being thoroughly American. Prescott was not merely picturesque in location and dainty in appearance, with all its houses neatly painted and surrounded with paling fences and supplied with windows after the American style-it was a village transplanted bodily from the centre of the Delaware, the Mohawk, or the Connecticut valley. Its inhabitants were Americans; American men had brought American wives out with them from their old homes in the far East, and these American wives had not forgotten the lessons of elegance and thrift learned in childhood. Everything about the houses recalled the scenes familiar to the dweller in the country near Pittsburgh or other busy community. The houses were built in American style; the doors were American doors and fastened with American bolts and locks, opened by American knobs, and not closed by letting a heavy cottonwood log fall against them.

P276

What with the cold threatening to freeze us, the explosions of the lodges sending the poles whirling through the air, and the leaden attentions which the enemy was once more sending in with deadly aim, our situation was by no means agreeable, and I may claim that the notes jotted down in my journal from which this narrative is condensed were taken under peculiar embarrassments.

"Crazy Horse's" village was bountifully provided with all that a savage could desire, and much besides that a white man would not disdain to class among the comforts of life:

There was no great quantity of baled furs, which, no doubt, had been sent in to some of the posts or agencies to be traded off for the ammunition on hand, but there were many loose robes of buffalo, elk, bear, and beaver; many of these skins were of extra fine quality. Some of the buffalo robes were wondrously embroidered with porcupine quills and elaborately decorated with painted symbolism. One immense elk skin was found as large as two and a half army blankets; it was nicely tanned and elaborately ornamented. The couches in all the lodges were made of these valuable furs and peltries. Every squaw and every buck was provided with a good-sized valise of tanned buffalo, deer, elk, or pony hide, gaudily painted, and filled with fine clothes, those of the squaws being heavily embroidered with bead-work. Each family had similar trunks for carrying kitchen utensils and the various kinds of herbs that the plains' tribes prized so highly. There were war-bonnets, strikingly beautiful in appearance, formed of a head-band of red cloth or of beaver fur, from which depended another piece of red cloth which reached to the ground when the wearer was mounted, and covered him and the pony he rode. There was & crown of eagle feathers, and similar plumage was affixed to the tail-piece. Bells, ribbons, and other gew-gaws were also attached....

P. 310: Battle of the Rosebud

By daylight of the next day, June 17, 1876, we were marching down the Rosebud.  The Crow scouts with whom I was had gone but a short distance when shots were heard down the valley to the north, followed by the ululation proclaiming from the hill-tops that the enemy was in force and that we were in for a fight. Shot after shot followed on the left, and by the time that two of the Crows reached us, one of them severely wounded and both crying, "Sioux! Sioux!" it was plain that something out of the common was to be expected.

p. 380: "Horse Meat March"

We marched comparatively little the next day, not more than twenty-four miles, going into camp in a sheltered ravine on the South Fork of the Grand River, within sight of the Slim Buttes, and in a position which supplied all the fuel needed, the first seen for more than ninety miles, but so soaked with water that all we could do with it was to raise a smoke. It rained without intermission all day and all night, but we had found wood, and our spirits rose with the discovery; then, our scouts had killed five antelope, whose flesh was distributed among the command, the sick in hospital being served first. Plums and bull berries almost ripe were appearing in plenty, and gathered in quantity to be boiled and eaten with horse-meat. Men were getting pretty well exhausted, and each mile of the march saw squads of stragglers, something which we had not seen before; the rain was so unintermittent, the mud so sticky, the air so damp, that with the absence of food and warmth, men lost courage, and not a few of the officers did the same thing. Horses had to be abandoned in great numbers, but the best of them were killed to supply meat, which with the bull berries and water had become almost our only certain food, eked out by an occasional slice of antelope or jack rabbit.

The 8th of September was General Crook's birthday; fifteen or sixteen of the officers had come to congratulate him at his fire under the cover of a projecting rock, which kept off a considerable part of the downpour of rain; it was rather a forlorn birthday party, nothing to eat, nothing to drink, no chance to dry clothes, and nothing for which to be thankful except that we had found wood, which was a great blessing. Sagebrush, once so despised, was now welcomed whenever it made its appearance, as it began to do from this on; it at least supplied the means of making a small fire, and provided the one thing which under all circumstances the soldier should have, if possible. Exhausted by fatiguing marches through mud and rain, without sufficient or proper food, our soldiers reached bivouac each night, to find only a rivulet of doubtful water to quench their thirst, and then went supperless to bed.

In all the hardships, in all the privations of the humblest soldier, General Crook freely shared; there was no mess in the whole column which suffered as much as did that of which General Crook was a member; for four days before any other mess had been so reduced we had been eating the meat of played-out cavalry horses, and at the date of which I am now writing all the food within reach was horsemeat, water, and enough bacon to grease the pan in which the former was to be fried. Crackers, sugar, and coffee had been exhausted, and we had no addition to our bill of fare beyond an occasional plateful of wild onions gathered alongside of the trail. An antelope had been killed by one of the orderlies attached to the headquarters, and the remains of this were hoarded with care for emergencies.

Cheyenne names

Thunder Cloud

Blown Away

Singing Bear

Fast Thunder

Black Mouse

Shuts the Door

Horse Comes Last

Arapahoe names

Sleeping Wolf

Red Beaver

Sitting Bul

Yellow Owl

Singing Beaver

Eco Sound

 

Sounds spectrographs (e.g. Merlin sound ID) usually show frequencies up to 8 or 10 kHz, but some humans have the ability to hear up to 20 kHz. Most bird song, and indeed most sounds humans care about are less than 10 kHz - usually much less. For example, middle C on a piano is 440 Hz and the highest note on a piano is just above 4 kHz. 

 So what do humans hear above 10 kHz? Some crickets make sound in the 10-20 kHz range, and some rodent squeak distress calls are audible there too. The hiss of water or air from a pinprick hole can be in this range, but it’s not clear humans would need to evolve to hear that. 

So far, I think the most likely sound in this range is the whine of mosquito wings - maybe we evolved to swat mosquitoes? 

 Also, slowed bird song sounds reeeeaaalllly cool! The 2nd to last audio file on this web page is a good example: https://donaldkroodsma.com/?page_id=49

lang eliot also has a recording that is pitch-lower the recording about one octave, to bring the notes into a frequency range that is, at least generally speaking, more appealing to our human musical preferences (note that the vast majority of human-created melodic instruments produce dominant tones that are lower in pitch than the majority of bird songs). https://musicofnature.com/celestial-music/ 

 lang Eliot current project: app that employs advanced algorithms to lower the pitch of bird songs in real time, thereby making them audible during walks in nature. https://hearbirdsagain.org/

What's up with iNat in Japan?

I recently listened to a fascinating podcast about the naturalist community in Japan, specifically about their interest in entomology. However, when I look at iNaturalist statistics for Japan, there appear to be very few observations/observers/identifiers given the population and level of development. 

This figure shows the number of Observations, Observers, and Identifiers versus per capita GDP for select countries that have similar populations. Japan (red X) is way below the trend lines for all 3 metrics.  Mexico (green asterisk) is way above trend.

Interestingly, South Korea (blue triangle) clusters with Japan, although South Korea has a population that is less than 1/2 that of Japan.

Japan clusters with the Philippines and Egypt based on population.  Interestingly, the trend lines for iNat statistics and total population are not as consistent as per capita GDP.  (China is excluded from the chart above and the one below because its population is an outlier compared to the other countries.)

This chart shows total GDP versus Observations, Observers, and Identifiers.  Japan is a clear outlier in the bottom right corner with a high GDP but low iNat statistics.

Conclusions

In this dataset, the strongest r value was Observers versus per capita GDP.  The second highest was Identifiers versus Total GDP.  The lowest was Observers versus Total Population.  This is consistent with the hypothesis that level of development (as measured by GDP) is the strongest predictor of iNat usage. 

For an interactive version of these charts on Tableau Public, use this link: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/alexandra.permar/viz/iNatCountryComparison/